The Hindu Business Line : Query Corner

Hotel Leela (Rs 63.7): The stock is in an intermediate-term uptrend since the low hit in late July. The price is currently retracing this upward move. There is strong support around Rs 65, where the price is halting. The target below Rs 65 would be Rs 58. Short-term investors should keep a stop at Rs 57. If the price reverses above Rs 58, it can then rally to Rs 83 or Rs 97 over the next three months.

Reliance Petroleum (Rs 67.6): This is a long-term story. The chart made a low at Rs 58 in mid-June. Since then, the stock is in an upward moving channel. The upper boundary of this channel is positioned at Rs 73. That is likely to be the upper target over the next three months. If the Rs 73-level is crossed, the price can rally to Rs 76. Hold with a stop at Rs 63.

I am holding the 100 shares of Kewal Kiran Clothing Company bought at Rs 350. I want to know the outlook for this stock. Suresh Kumar Yadav

Kewal Kiran Clothing (Rs 232.5): This stock had a 61-per cent fall from its May high of Rs 373. Though the long-term trend is not positive, some sort of a recovery is currently underway. The major hurdle in the short term is at Rs 290. If Rs 290 is crossed, the price can go on to Rs 355. Hold the stock with a stop at Rs 220.

What are the prospects of Sterling Biotech bought at Rs 122? Poothathan Rajendran

Sterling Biotech (Rs 151.2): Significant spurt in volumes is apparent on the chart since late September, when the price reversed to gain 70 per cent in five sessions! One needs to be extremely agile to be able to exploit the ups and downs in this stock. Keep a trailing stop of 10 per cent from the recent peak to ride this move as far as possible. Short-term resistance exists at Rs 157. Target beyond Rs 157 is at Rs 184.

I am holding 2000 Avaya Global purchased at Rs 304. What is the future of this stock? Anand

Avaya Global (Rs 237.1): This stock is in a long-term down trend. A breakout past Rs 340 is required to make the long-term outlook neutral. Short-term support exists at Rs 240. Since the stock fell below Rs 240 on Friday, it could now test its long-term support at Rs 219. Exit the stock if it closes below Rs 215.

I have Polaris bought at Rs 138. What are the short- and long-term prospects? V. Natarajan

Polaris Lab (Rs 122.7): This stock has hit dizzying highs of Rs 1,075 in the technology bubble of 2000. Since it was a bubble, those highs may not be seen again. But the long-term range for this stock is between Rs 50 and Rs 300. As we are currently half way up this range, the stock can move higher to Rs 165 or Rs 190 in the short-term. Hold with a stop at Rs 110.

I hold 20 shares of Oriental Bank of Commerce at Rs 266.4. Please give its short-term prospects. Vivek Mallik

Oriental Bank of Commerce (Rs 252.3): This counter has gained 102 per cent from its July low of Rs 138. It has short-term support of Rs 227. Recovery above Rs 227 will take the price to the Rs 290-300 zone, where the stock faces stiff resistance. A breakout past Rs 300 can take the price to Rs 367. Hold with a stop at Rs 225. If the stop loss is hit, contemplate fresh buys around Rs 200.

What are the prospects of Bongaigaon Refineries? Can I buy South Indian Bank at these levels? Vijay, Shyamala Parasuraman, Rajesh Mishra

Bongaigaon Refineries (Rs 55.2): Please refer our earlier column (September 3 edition) in which we had stated that the level of Rs 40 should act as support in case of a sharp slide in prices. Investors were advised to hold this stock with a stop at Rs 40. We had envisaged an upper boundary at Rs 79 for this stock over the next one year.

The long-term outlook remains the same. Short-term support for the stock is at Rs 49. Short-term targets on the upside are at Rs 59 and then Rs 66. Investors with a short time frame should exit the stock if it struggles to rise past Rs 60 over the next one month.

South Indian Bank (Rs 70.2): The scrip is moving in a broad channel over the long term. Long-term support for this stock is at Rs 58 and the upper target for the long term is at Rs 95. Investors with a one-to-six-month horizon can buy this stock with a stop at Rs 65.

What is the short-term outlook for ICICI bank and Bank of Baroda? Also please explain the next resistance level for these two. Chandran

ICICI Bank (Rs 874.8): There's more upside left in this stock. It is trading at a whopping 31 per cent above its May highs. E-wave patterns on the long-term charts suggest Rs 1,358 as the nearest target. We will revisit this chart once this target is crossed. Short-term traders can look for buying opportunity around Rs 860 or Rs 820. Investors should wait for the next consolidation move before fresh investments are contemplated.

Bank of Baroda (Rs 263.5): This stock is correcting the sharp upmove seen since the low of Rs 176 made in mid-July. A prolonged corrective phase between Rs 300 and Rs 250 will be construed as a base for the next upward leg, which can take the stock higher to Rs 329 and then to Rs 378. Fresh investments can be made in this stock with a stop at Rs 248.

What are the future prospects of Marksans Pharma from a two-year window? Shrikant Saini

Marksans Pharma (Rs 116.8): This scrip is in a structural bear market. The short-term range would be between Rs 90 and Rs 160. A rally above Rs 210 is required to remove the long-term bearish bias. Consider exiting on a rally to Rs 130 or Rs 150.

Please advise me about mid- and long-term prospects of Gujarat Ambuja Cement bought at Rs 119 and Ingersoll Rand bought at Rs 298. R. R. Chablani

Gujarat Ambuja Cement (Rs 136): Cement stocks were hit hard in the crash of May. Gujarat Ambuja was no different. It fell 50 per cent from its peak in May and June. But the subsequent recovery has been so strong that it appears like the fifth wave from the 2003 lows on the long-term charts. That would mean that the price can move higher than Rs 152 or Rs 203. A broad range between Rs 120 and Rs 200 is feasible for this stock over the next one year. Hold with a stop just below your cost price.

Ingersoll Rand (Rs 342.8): This stock is looking strong from a long-term perspective. It can move higher to Rs 431 and then to Rs 563 over the next one year. Hold on to this stock with a stop at Rs 290.

I would like to have your advice on Ind Swift Labs. V. T. Joseph, Srigopal Bang

Ind Swift Labs (Rs 39.9): The long-term trend in this stock is down. The stock is stuck in a range between Rs 25 and Rs 50. Breakout from this range will take the stock to Rs 64. We would like to see a breakout above Rs 64 before we change the long-term outlook to neutral. Exit on a rally.

I have bought Torrent Pharma at Rs 180 per share. Should I hold this stock or exit from it? Manoj Kumar Garg

Torrent Pharma (Rs 196.1): Torrent Pharma has not yet emerged from the correction that gripped this stock post May. The stock needs to rise above Rs 225 before long-term investors can consider parking funds in it. Exit if the stock fails to rise above Rs 225.

I am a long-term investor and holding Aegis Logistics at the rate of Rs 100.

What is the technical outlook for this company? Abhineet

Aegis Logistics (Rs 146.2): The recovery in this stock after June has not been anything to write home about. The stock has been unable to rise past the initial resistance band that lies between Rs 195 and Rs 205. Immediate support lies at Rs 145.

If this level is breached, there can be a dip to Rs 110 again. Book partial profits here and hold the rest with a stop at Rs 100.

You can re-enter around the Rs 110 levels.

Lokeshwarri S.K.

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