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Sunday, Jan 01, 2006

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Valuation below long-term average

Rasheeda Bhagat


Motilal Oswal, Chairman of Motilal Oswal Securities

Economy outlook: The Indian economy is expected to grow over 7 per cent in FY06 and maintain its momentum in FY07. Depending on the monsoons, a GDP growth of 6.5-7 per cent is sustainable.

Equity outlook: The Indian equity market will continue to perform in line with the corporate earnings growth of 15-20 per cent. While valuations have moved up (the BSE Sensex is trading at PE of 15x FY07 earnings), they are still below the long-term averages.

FII interest: It will remain high. The multiple themes that Indian stock market offers and opportunities for Indian companies are unparalleled. The transparency levels, the accounting standards and the ability of the Indian corporate sector to scale up will generate higher levels of interest in Indian equity.

Retail participation: It has been strong in 2005 with both mutual funds and PMS schemes receiving significant flows. Investor interest in IPOs has remained high. Given current interest rates, equity is a superior alternative.

Favoured sectors: Sectors that are proxies to domestic economy and rural demand will benefit over the next 12-24 months. We remain overweight on infrastructure, engineering, banks, automobiles, telecom, FMCG and retailing.

Best picks: Hero Honda, Infosys, BHEL, HDFC, Bharti.

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