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Bearish outlook on Reliance stays

B. Krishnakumar

Reliance Ind (Rs 523.6): Contrary to expectations, a distinctly positive trend prevailed last week. The share buy back proposal helped the stock recover.

The upward trend witnessed last week has not however negated the bearish outlook. The bearish outlook would be in force till such time the stock trades below the positive trigger level of Rs 548. The negative bias would be strengthened if the stock declines below Rs 500.

This would also confirm the possibility of a subsequent decline to the Rs 445-Rs 450 range.

ITC (Rs 1,298.7): As observed in earlier weeks, the long-term outlook remains bullish. The short-term correction was completed last week.

The stock has resumed the next leg of the upward move. A sharp drop in volatility was evident in the past few days. The emergence of such a pattern is usually followed by a sharp move in price. As the stock has completed the downward move, the target zone of Rs 1,450-Rs 1,500 beckons. Investors willing to take delivery may consider long positions with a stop-loss at Rs 1,240.

Shareholders may remain invested with a stop-loss at Rs 1,190. A drop below Rs 1,190 would blunt the positive outlook.

Hindustan Lever (Rs 144): After a sharp upward move, the stock is in a corrective phase. There appears to be limited downside risk as it could rebound from the immediate support level at Rs 138-Rs 140 range. Long positions may be considered on price dips with a stop loss at Rs 135.

The positive view would be valid until the stock drops below Rs 135. A drop below Rs 135 would warrant dilution of holdings. A move above Rs 148 would confirm the positive outlook and the stock may move to Rs 165-Rs 170 range subsequently.

Infosys (Rs 2,064.8): As anticipated, the stock ruled weak. The near-term trend remains bearish. A drop below Rs 2,020 would confirm the bearish outlook and would push the stock to the support level of the Rs 1,950-Rs 1,970.

Shareholders may remain invested with a stop-loss at Rs 2,030. Only a move past Rs 2,130 would impart positive momentum.

Ranbaxy Labs (Rs 1,237.8): The bullish view expressed in earlier weeks remains unaltered. The stock is in the midst of a long-term bullish trend.

However, the short-term corrective phase is not over yet. A drop to Rs 1,180-Rs 1,185 range appears likely. The upward move would resume on the completion of this correction. The immediate target is placed at the Rs 1,475-Rs 1,500 range. The positive view would be in force as long as the stock trades above Rs 1,170.

Hold with a stop-loss at Rs 1,170. Long positions may be considered on a move past Rs 1,265, with a close stop-loss in place.

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