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A new cue for your debt portfolio

Aarati Krishnan


With debt instruments, too, timing of investments can improve your strike rate.

DO you believe that timing your investment and switching deftly between holdings are only for stock market investors? If yes, the past year would have proved you wrong. If you had invested in a diversified bond fund at any time last year, your investment would have earned a measly return, of between a negative 3 per cent and a positive 2 per cent till date — probably faring worse than your bank deposit.

The abrupt reversal in the direction of interest rates has robbed these funds of the gains that they made from rising bond prices for years together until 2003.

Your investment would have fared much better if you had an inkling of the likely direction of interest rates sometime last year. Or if you knew enough, to switch last August from these bond funds to floating rate or liquid funds, which have beaten them hollow ( see box story for a primer on them).

A low-maintenance portfolio

You would have to be a die-hard economist to gauge the direction of interest rates from inflation and money supply numbers. Nor would it be practical to keep an eagle eye on your bond portfolio, so that you can zip between various classes of debt. So, can investors construct a "low-maintenance" portfolio for debt? Here are a few suggestions that you could use to rejig your debt portfolio:

  • Exhaust islands of return: There is likely to be a certain portion of your bond portfolio that you may not require anytime soon. Switch this portion into the islands of high returns — assured return schemes such as the Public Provident Fund, Post Office Monthly Income Scheme, the Senior Citizen's Scheme (if eligible), National Savings Certificates and Government of India 8 per cent bonds.

    Despite their lock-in periods, these options are attractive because of their high returns (even after tax), which remain out of sync with the rest of the market. And that they come without any default risk is the icing on the cake. You can also claim tax exemption on interest receipts from all these options under Section 80L.

  • Next, consider fixed deposit programmes of companies, to pep up the overall returns on your fixed income portfolio. While top notch companies are still offering 5.5 per cent a year, shopping further down the rating scale may fetch you returns of 7-7.5 per cent, with only a slightly higher degree of credit risk (see `Fine art of FD planning', Business Line, September 12). If you are in the higher tax bracket, small savings options may be better than FDs, as interest receipts from the latter are taxable.

  • Funds for liquidity: The facility to convert your investment into cash at any time of your choice and tax efficiency remain the compelling arguments for continuing to invest in debt-oriented mutual funds. Liquid funds and money market funds which are expected to generate 4-4.5 per cent appear to be most suitable for investors seeking safety of their capital, without having to actively manage their portfolio. These may also be a good substitute for your savings bank account, earning you a marginally higher return. Use them to park your emergency stash of cash, short-term surpluses which you have not yet decided where to deploy and money you may require at short notice. These funds are designed to preserve your capital, so you need not spend sleepless nights worrying about the possibility of negative returns. The low cost and the fee structure of these funds will also boost your investment returns.

  • Among the bond funds on offer, floating rate funds may seem the obvious choice right now, given fears of rising interest rates, fuelled by inflation. But these "floaters" have a couple of disadvantages. One, given the limited availability of floating rate papers, a portion of a floating rate fund's portfolio may be parked in non-floating rate instruments. Second, floating rate funds will only work to your advantage when interest rates are on the rise. They will bring no particular advantage in returns, if rates flatten out or "float" downwards.

    Investors who are not confident of calling the direction of interest rates, may permanently park a part, say, 20 per cent, of their portfolio in floaters, as a measure to protect against rising rates. But do not switch your entire debt portfolio or even a lion's share of it into floaters, as this would be a gamble on continually rising rates.

  • Whither bond funds: Should diversified bond funds continue to remain a part of your portfolio? They can. But it may be better to restrict your investments to the short term plans of bond funds, so that you can protect your portfolio from risks of a spike in interest rates. Quite a few fund houses encourage only large investments in short-term plans, but a few do allow smaller ticket sizes.

    In theory, as long as your holding period in fairly long-say 4-5 years, interest rate changes should not make a difference to your holdings even in a long term bond fund, as interest receipts may make up for the fall in bond prices. But it may still be better to stick to short-term plans for now. For one, it is often difficult to predict your holding period in advance. Second, there could be an opportunity loss involved in staying with long term bond funds. By staying invested in a long-term fund, you would be losing out on the opportunity to benefit from a spike in interest rates in the near term, which you could do with a short term plan or a liquid fund. Significant pullouts by savvy investors could also prevent long-term bond funds from taking advantage of opportunities presented by rising interest rates.

    Considering these risks, it may be best to retain a modest portion of your portfolio in diversified bond and gilt funds which pack their portfolios with long-term bonds.

  • Explore flexible products: Investors who do not have a large sum to invest or those who would like to completely leave the asset allocation decisions to the fund manager, may opt for Dynamic funds or Fund of Fund products (such as the Grindlays All Seasons Bond Fund), which promise to shuttle between debt classes to maximise returns.

    But remember, even here, you are assuming the risk of wrong calls on the markets or in fund selection by the investment manager.

  • The stellar returns from equity may seem tempting to many debt fund investors who have been earning measly single digit returns from their debt investments.

    The temptation to invest even a small portion of your debt portfolio in equities for the much-touted "kicker" to returns may be high. If you are unwilling to risk losing any of your capital, resist the temptation. Remember, the equity markets can wipe out in a single month what your debt portfolio may earn over years. Be patient instead.

    If interest rates continue their upward journey, investments in fixed deposits and short-term income funds may once again begin to deliver inflation-beating returns, as rising interest rates work their magic on your investment.

    Bond with the fundas

    FUND houses today offer a dizzying array of products for debt investors. A few of them are relevant only to big institutional investors.

    For retail investors navigating debt funds, here is a primer on what the names mean and when one should invest in each debt fund:

    Diversified bond funds (commonly known as bond funds or income funds): Designed to invest in a diversified basket of bonds bearing fixed interest rates.

    These funds usually invest a large portion of their portfolio in corporate or government bonds which are set to mature in a specified number of years from now, usually more than three-four years. Will perform best in a falling interest rate regime, as they derive their returns from interest receipts as well as changes in bond prices.

    Gilt funds: Invests only in government borrowings, usually of longer maturities, as above. Also performs best when interest rates are tumbling.

    Medium- and short-term plans: Variations of diversified bond funds, which restrict themselves to borrowings with a shorter lifespan. The portfolios of short-term plans usually mature on an average of 1-2 years, while medium-term plans may carry slightly higher maturities.

    Short-term plans depend more on interest rate receipts than on changes in bond prices for returns. May outpace long-term bond funds in a rising rate regime, as short-term bond prices are less vulnerable to rate changes than are long-term bonds.

    Most fund houses set fairly high minimum investment limits for these plans, designed for institutional investors.

    Liquid/cash/money market funds: Invest only in highly liquid and very short-term corporate borrowings, treasury bills and money market instruments. Depends mainly on interest income for returns. Low risk of capital loss. Good avenue for parking short-term surpluses, no matter where the rates are headed.

    Floating rate funds/floaters: Invest mainly in bonds which carry interest rates which are likely to be reset upwards or downwards in line with market rates. Will earn higher returns when rates are rising and lower returns when rates are falling. Good for protecting against risks of changes in interest rates.

    A word of caution

    When investing in a debt fund, don't go by the name alone. Two different products with similar names, such as `Income Plus' or `Bond Fund', may often sport widely different portfolios.

    Check out the investment objectives from your distributor before committing your funds.

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