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B. Krishnakumar

I am holding Tube Investments India bought at Rs 230 and Carborundum Universal at Rs 250. Please tell me the long-term view for these stocks? — Atul

Tube Investments (Rs 273): Shareholders could remain invested, as the outlook appears positive. The stock could seek higher levels of Rs 290-300 in the near term. Those who hold profitable position may place a stop-loss at Rs 240. Conservative investors may have the stop-loss at higher level of Rs 255. At least partial profit taking may be considered by investors if the stock faces resistance around the Rs 290-300 range.

Carborundum Universal (Rs 295): The stock could seek higher levels of Rs 320-325 in the near term. Only a decline below Rs 270 would negate this view. Hold with a stop-loss at Rs 270 and use price rise to reduce holdings. Fresh buying may be avoided.

Is it advisable to buy Saw Pipes at prevailing market levels? I have holdings in IndusInd Bank purchased at Rs 50.30. What is the near term and long-term outlook? — Sridhar

Saw Pipes (Rs 180.6): Despite the recent sharp upward move, there are no signs of a well-established bullish trend as yet. We would not give a "buy" recommendation based on recent price action. It would be better to wait for a while till such time there is a clear sign of recovery in prices. A close above Rs 210 would be a positive trigger and may be used to take exposures with a suitable stop-loss. Alternatively, buying may be considered if the stock seeks support at the Rs 85-90 range.

IndusInd Bank (Rs 48.5): Remain invested with a stop-loss at Rs 45. The near-term trend does not appear too positive. Drop to the Rs 38-40 range appears likely. Those holding large quantity may have stop-loss at Rs 45 for a portion of the holding and at Rs 41 for the balance.

I bought HPCL at Rs 319 and Wipro at Rs 533. What is the outlook of the said shares in the near term and is it worth buying more shares? — Lijoo K. John

HPCL (Rs 318.1): A move to the Rs 340-345 range appears likely in the near term. Hold with a stop-loss at Rs 295. After the anticipated rally towards the Rs 340-345 range, the stock is expected to revert to the Rs 270-275 band. Liquidate a portion of the holding on weakness at the Rs 335-340 range. Fresh buying may be avoided.

Wipro (Rs 547): The share price has been languishing in a narrow range in the recent weeks. There is a possibility of a rally to the Rs 570-575 range. However, a decisive upward trend would materialise only on a close above Rs 620. Till such time, it would be better to stay invested and refrain from committing funds in the stock.

I purchased KEC International at Rs 86 and Vijaya Bank at Rs 73. Should I hold these two stocks or should sell them? — Sapna & Santhana Raman

KEC International (Rs 85.7): The price range of Rs 91-95 has turned out to be a strong resistance zone for the stock. Only a move past Rs 98 would impart positive trend. Going by the recent chart patterns, the momentum required to stage this breakout seems to be lacking. Hold on with a stop-loss at Rs 78 and reduce exposures on price upswings. Fresh buying may be avoided.

Vijaya Bank (Rs 45.2): After completing a major upward move at Rs 76, the stock has ruled weak since April 2004. At least the first leg of the drop from this high appears complete. The share price could move to the Rs 52-55 range. It would be premature to make a call on the possibility of a move to earlier high at Rs 76. Investors willing to take risk may make fresh purchases on price dips with a close stop-loss in place. Short-term traders may go long on a move above Rs 48, with a suitable stop-loss in place.

What is the outlook for Tata Finance? — Santhana Raman

Tata Finance (Rs 43.4): A drop below the support level at Rs 37 would be a negative trigger. The stock appears to have upside potential from present levels. A close above Rs 50 would confirm the positive outlook. Shareholders may remain invested with a stop-loss at Rs 41 for a portion of the holding and at Rs 37 for the balance. Those willing to take risk and the ones who have entered at fairly lower levels may have the stop-loss at Rs 34.

I bought Orchid Chemicals at Rs 265 and Indian Overseas Bank at Rs 65. Please suggest whether to sell these stocks or hold. — Tarun K. Gupta

Orchid Chemicals (Rs 181.6): There are no signs of an upward trend in the stock. A drop below Rs 172 would have negative implications. At least a portion of the holding may be sold at prevailing market rate. For the balance, a stop-loss may be placed at Rs 172.

Indian Overseas Bank (Rs 44): The stock could drop to the Rs 34-35 range in the worst-case scenario. The immediate outlook, however, is a rally to the Rs 52-55 range. It would be worthwhile to wait and take a decision on selling once the stock nears the Rs 52-55 range. Those willing to take risk may consider long positions on a close above Rs 47, with a stop-loss at Rs 42.

I hold shares of JP Associates at Rs 117 and Tata Chemicals at Rs 134. What is the outlook of these stocks? — Suresh Kumar Yadav

JP Associates (Rs 106.3): There appears to be little downside risk from current levels. Drop below Rs 100 would however be a cause of concern and would impart weakness. Remain invested with a stop-loss at Rs 99 for a portion of the holdings. Employ a trailing stop-loss in the event of a sustained upward move.

Tata Chemicals (Rs 119): The near-term outlook appears positive. A close above Rs 123 would impart positive momentum and could help the stock move to the Rs 132-135 range. Based on the latest chart pattern, the stock appears to be headed towards the Rs 140-145 range. At least partial profit taking may be considered on weakness around this range. Existing holders may remain invested with a stop-loss at Rs 108.

What is the outlook for Balaji Telefilms bought at Rs 84? I also purchased Jai Balaji Sponge at Rs 28. How does it look technically? — Ramesh Kumar

Balaji Telefilms (Rs 74.7): There is a risk of a drop to the Rs 48-50 range in the near term. This view would, however, be negated if the stock closes above Rs 90. Even in the case of a drop to the Rs 48-50 range, the stock is expected to stage a recovery thereafter. A major upward move may be expected after the completion of the expected downward move. Remain invested with a stop-loss at Rs 67. Buying may be considered at lower levels if the stop-loss gets triggered and if the stock manages to seek support around the Rs 48-50 band. Fresh buying may be deferred for the moment.

Jai Balaji Sponge (Rs 17.8): The price data is inadequate to arrive at a judgment about the likely price movement in the near term.

What is the outlook for Man Industries bought at Rs 114 & Bajaj Electricals at Rs 81? — Sanjay Kalamkar

Man Industries (Rs 90.3): There appears to be marginal downside risk from prevailing levels. The stock appears to be gearing for the next leg of an upward move. Rally to the Rs 118-120 range appears likely. Remain invested with a stop-loss at Rs 79 and use price move to the Rs 118-120 range to take partial profits. Long positions may also be considered, by investors willing to take risk, with a stop-loss at Rs 79.

Bajaj Electricals (Rs 47): The chances of the stock moving towards your purchase price of Rs 81 appear remote. The share price is likely to reverse direction after a short-term rise to the Rs 58-60 range. A trailing stop-loss may be employed in the event of a rise to this price range.

I bought Moser Baer at Rs 211 and Aurobhindo Pharma at Rs 360. Should I sell or hold? Please suggest what is the outlook for these shares? — Hari

Moser Baer (Rs 189): The stock has been covered recently and the view expressed earlier is unchanged. The near-term outlook appears weak and a drop to the Rs 150-160 range appears likely. Shareholders holding a profitable position may take at least partial profits at prevailing market price. Those willing to take risk may hold or sell on an upswing. Conservative investors may reduce exposures and consider re-entry if the stock seeks support at the Rs 150-155 range.

Aurobindo Pharma (Rs 362.6): The long-term outlook is bullish and the share price is expected to test the latest high of Rs 475. Only a decline below the strong support zone at the Rs 305-310 band would negate the positive outlook. Remain invested with a stop-loss at Rs 330. Risk seeking investors may place the stop-loss at Rs 304. A move past Rs 380 would be a positive trigger and be used to take fresh exposures with a stop-loss at Rs 345.

Readers can send in their queries, on not more than two companies, to

techtrail@thehindu.co.in

Queries can also be sent by post to:

Tech Trail, 859/860 Kasturi Buildings, Anna Salai, Chennnai 600 002

We would endeavour to answer as many queries as possible. However, constraints of space will limit the responses featured under this column.

(The analysis and opinion expressed in these columns are based on the technical analysis of the past price behaviour. Opinion and price targets are based on the Elliott Wave Analysis. The stop-loss level provided with the recommendation is important. The original view would stand negated if the stop loss level is breached. There is a risk of loss in trading)

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