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B. Krishnakumar

What is the outlook for MRPL bought at Rs 8 and PNB Gilts at Rs 30? — Rakesh Kumar Singhal

MRPL (Rs 60.3): The outlook for the stock is positive. Taking into account your purchase price and technical outlook, there is no reason to sell this stock now. The immediate resistance is at Rs 72-75 range.

A move past Rs75 would impart further bullish momentum. Remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 50 for a portion of your holding. For the balance, the stop loss may be placed at Rs 40.

PNB Gilts (Rs 27.2): The price pattern does not throw up any discernible clue about the long-term outlook for the stock. From a short-term perspective, a drop below Rs 25 may impart weakness. Hold on with a stop loss at Rs 25.

I bought Andhra Bank at Rs 64 and Birla Corporation at Rs 74.5. Should I to hold or exit? — Lakshmi Rajesh

Andhra Bank (Rs 69.7): The stock appears to have upside potential from present levels. A move to Rs 82-Rs 85 range appears likely. Only a drop below Rs 60 would blunt the bullish outlook for the stock. Remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 60. Investors holding a large number of shares may sell a part of their holdings if the price drops below Rs 60.

Birla Corp (Rs 91.4): The stock has cleared past the crucial resistance level at Rs 85. This has imparted bullish momentum and the stock could now target the Rs 100-mark in the near term. Remain invested with a stop loss Rs 70. A drop below Rs 70 would negate the positive outlook and would warrant reduction of holdings.

I bought GAIL at Rs 243 and Aurobindo Pharma at Rs 412. Should I hold or sell? — Rajesh Pillai

GAIL (Rs 243.8): Though the long-term outlook for the stock is positive, it may not move close to your purchase price of Rs 303 for quite some time.

In the near term, a break above the resistance level at Rs 248 would help the stock move to Rs 270-Rs 275 range.

Investors willing to take risk may consider long positions on a move past Rs 248, with a stop loss at Rs 238. A portion of the holdings may be sold on evidence of weakness at Rs 270-Rs 275 range.

A drop below Rs 200 would have negative implications for the stock.

Aurobindo Pharma (Rs 394.8): The stock appears to have started the next leg of upmove. A move past the earlier high at Rs 480 appears likely. Remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 350.

A drop below this level would warrant partial liquidation of holdings. Price declines may be used to build exposures. Long-term investors need not sell the stock now as the trend is bullish.

What is the outlook for Tata Infotech purchased at Rs 380 and Goodlass Nerolac at Rs 440? — Vishal Mehta

Tata Infotech (Rs 446.2): The stock has been languishing in a range in the recent weeks and has not been in a position to make any headway in either direction. Though the share price could seek higher levels in the near-term, only a move past Rs 500 would impart positive momentum.

Investors may hold on with a stop loss at Rs 420. Partial profit taking may be considered on evidence of weakness at about the Rs 490-Rs 500 zone.

Alternatively, a trailing stop loss may also be used to protect unrealised gains once the stock approaches the resistance zone of Rs 500.

Goodlass Nerolac (Rs 534.2): After prolonged sideways price action, the share price made a decisive breakout on the back of increased volumes on Wednesday.

The near-term trend remains positive and the stock appears set to resume the earlier uptrend. Only a drop below Rs 460 would be a cause of concern.

Remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 460 for a portion of the holdings. Conservative investors may place the stop loss at a slightly higher level of Rs 490.

Shall I hold or exit Asian Electronics bought at Rs 53? — N.R. Srinatha & Sarangan

Asian Electronics (Rs 55.4): The stock appears to be in the midst of a major uptrend from a long-term perspective. However, in the near term, a test of the recent low of Rs 31 cannot be ruled out. Conservative investors may book profit on price upmove to Rs 72-Rs 75 range. A drop below Rs 50 could push the stock down to the Rs 28-Rs 31 range. Remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 50. Evidence of weakness in the Rs 68-Rs 70 range may be used to reduce exposures.

Should I hold it or sell KEC International and Zee Telefilms? — S.N. Ammal

KEC International (Rs 85.7): The stock right now is in a consolidation phase. The long-term uptrend would reassert itself once the consolidation gets over.

A move to Rs 105-Rs 110 range appears likely. Remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 78.

There is no reason to sell this stock in a hurry and only a close below Rs 78 would warrant dilution of holdings.

Zee Telefilms (Rs 149.8): There appears to be marginal downside risk from current levels.

Only a decline below Rs 110 would have negative implications. A breach of this level would result in the completion of a bearish "Head and Shoulder" formation.

Remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 110. Those uncomfortable with the stop loss at this level may place it at Rs 135.

What is the outlook of Hughes Software purchased at Rs 160? Please suggest the stop loss, exit levels. — Phani Kumar

Hughes Software (Rs 535.4): There appears to be marginal downside risk from present levels.

Taking into account your purchase price and the overall trend, it would be better to remain invested. Partial profit taking may be considered if the stock drops below Rs 470.

The stock is likely to test the recent high in the Rs 660-Rs 670 range.

This view would be negated if the stock drops below Rs 470. Holdings may be diluted if the stock faces resistance at about the Rs 640-Rs 650 range. A move past Rs 600 may also be used to take partial profits.

What is outlook for Indian Overseas Bank bought at Rs 24? — Prakash & Raj Nair

Indian Overseas Bank (Rs 68.3): The stock still has ground to cover on the upside. A move to Rs 85-Rs 90 is not ruled out based on the recent chart patterns. Only a drop below Rs 52 would be a major cause of concern.

Remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 60. A close above Rs 77 may be used to take fresh exposures with a close stop loss in place.

I am holding TN Petro and SAIL. What is the outlook for the two stocks? — Rajagopal Rao

TN Petro (Rs 24.0): The price action in the recent months does not throw up any significant clue about the future outlook. Remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 20 and take at least partial profits if the stock moves to the immediate resistance zone at Rs 26-Rs 27.

SAIL (Rs 40.1): There is relatively limited downside risk from current levels. In the worst case, the stock may re-test the recent low of Rs 30.85.

The uptrend is then likely to gain momentum. If the stock does not drop below Rs 35, there is a possibility of an upmove to Rs 45-Rs 48 levels. Remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 35.

I hold IBP at Rs 589 and ONGC at Rs 712. What is the near-term outlook? — M. Joseph

IBP (Rs 619.8): After touching a high at Rs 912 in early January 2004, the stock has been on a downtrend. The price range of Rs 890-Rs 910, has turned out to be a strong resistance zone.

On three earlier occasions, the share price has turned weak after hitting this band. Going by the price action, it appears that the stock still has some downside risk. A drop below Rs 610 would be an early indicator of further weakness.

On the upside, the immediate resistance is at Rs 680-Rs 690 range, followed by Rs 740-Rs 750. Remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 610.

At least partial profit taking may be considered if the price moves to Rs 700.

ONGC (Rs 860.5): The recovery from the recent low of Rs 665 in February 2004 does appears to be corrective in nature.

There is no evidence to suggest that the recent rally is part of a new uptrend. Only a move past Rs 1,000 would indicate that the stock has completed the downward correction at the low of Rs 665.

Remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 810. There is no reason to liquidate holdings immediately. Partial profit taking may be considered on the evidence of weakness at Rs 950-Rs 960 levels. A drop below Rs 810 would warrant significant dilution of holdings.

(Readers can send in their queries, on not more than two companies, to techtrail@thehindu.co.in Queries can also be sent by post to: Tech Trail, 859/860 Kasturi Buildings, Anna Salai, Chennnai 600 002 We would endeavour to answer as many queries as possible. However, constraints of space will limit the responses featured under this column.)

(Note: The analysis and opinion expressed in these columns are based on the technical analysis of the past price behaviour. Opinion and price targets are based on the Elliott Wave Analysis. The stop-loss level provided with the recommendation is important. The original view would stand negated if the stop loss level is breached. There is a risk of loss in trading)

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