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B. Krishnakumar

I am holding the Marico Industries (bought at Rs 221) and Essel Packaging (at Rs 240). Please advise whether to hold or exit. — Suresh Kumar Yadav

Marico Industries (Rs 194.3): The stock has been confined to a narrow trading range in the recent weeks. Though the long-term outlook appears positive, a decisive trend would emerge only if the stock breaks out of this range. Remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 180. Only a close above Rs 226 would impart bullish undertone. Fresh buying may be avoided for the time being.

Essel Packaging (Rs 209.5): The outlook for the stock remains positive. The recent downward correction appears complete now. A steady upmove towards the Rs 270-280 range appears likely. Remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 190. A close above Rs 243 could be used to take fresh long positions.

I purchased IFCI at Rs 15.75 and Hindustan Motors at Rs 17.75. Please advise me on the likely trend. — T. Suresh

IFCI (Rs 13.9): There appears to be limited downside risk from current levels. A drop to the Rs 12-12.5 range appears likely in a worse-case scenario. A close above Rs 16.5 could help the stock seek the Rs 20-21 range. Remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 11.9 as the stock could dart back to the Rs 20-21 range.

Hindustan Motors (Rs 14.5): A move to the Rs 16.5-17 range appears likely in the near term.

Existing holders could remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 13. A drop below Rs 13 would warrant dilution of holdings. A trailing stop loss could be employed in the event of an uptrend.

I bought Tata Finance at Rs 53 and HFCL at Rs 30.00. Please advise whether I can buy more to average my cost in these two stocks. What is the long-term and short-term view for these stocks? — T.N. Purushotham

Tata Finance (Rs 41.7): The stock has the potential to seek higher levels of Rs 58-60 in the near term. This view would be valid as long as the share price stays above Rs 37. A drop below Rs 37 would have negative implications. Remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 36.5.

Himachal Furutistic (Rs 14.4): The stock is likely to struggle to move towards the entry price of Rs 30. The near-term outlook, however, appears positive and a move to the Rs 20-21 range appears likely.

Remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 12.4. Fresh buying may be considered by risk-seeking traders with a stop loss at Rs 12.4.

I purchased Taj GVK, at Rs 68 based on your recommendations. I also have shares of Exide Industries bought at Rs 90. What is the outlook for these stocks? — N.H. Rao

Taj GVK Hotels (Rs 82.6): The stock has potential to seek Rs 100 in the near term. However, the present downward correction has to be completed before the rally to Rs 100 can take shape.

A move above Rs 90 would imply that the recent downtrend is complete. Existing holders could remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 76.

Exide Industries (Rs 107.2): A move to the Rs 120-125 range appears likely.

Taking into account the entry price and the upside potential, there is no reason to exit at current levels. Remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 97.

I would like to invest in Indo Rama Synthetics. Kindly advise. — Sandeep Kalra

Indo Rama Synthetics (Rs 79.1): The stock appears to have completed a short-term correction and appears set to resume the long-term uptrend.

Fresh investment may be considered with a stop loss at Rs 69. On the upside, the stock could seek the Rs 95-100 range.

A trailing stop loss could be employed once the investment turns profitable.

I have Punjab Tractors at Rs 230.5 and NIIT bought at Rs 130. What is the outlook for these stocks? — Rakesh

Punjab Tractors (Rs 194.3): The near-term outlook for the stock does not appear positive.

The recent downtrend does not appear complete as yet. A drop to the Rs 175-180 range appears likely.

A recovery or a relief rally can take shape thereafter. Stay invested with a stop loss at Rs 185. Use a trailing stop loss if the share price moves up.

NIIT (Rs 154.2): A move to the Rs 165-170 range appears likely in the near term. Remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 138. The stop loss level could be raised to Rs 165 once the stock closes above Rs 170.

I am holding Ballarpur Industries and Chennai Petroleum. Can I expect at least 25 per cent appreciation from present level or should I exit at the current rates? — Mohan

Ballarpur Industries (Rs 72.5): There is a possibility of a 25 per cent return in this stock from current level.

This would remain valid as long as the stock rules above Rs 68. A drop below Rs 68 would blunt the possibility of a 25 per cent return. Remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 68.

Chennai Petroleum (Rs 70.8): The stock is in a downward trend that is still not complete.

A drop to the Rs 58-60 range appears likely. A meaningful uptrend would resume only after the completion of the present downtrend.

A close above Rs 80 would indicate that the downtrend is complete. Given this backdrop, a 25 per cent return in the near-term may be a tough ask.

Remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 67. A close above Rs 80 could be used to take long positions (with a close stop loss) if the stop loss at Rs 67 gets triggered.

What is the short-term outlook for HDFC Bank and IPCL? — Siddarth Balasubramanian

HDFC Bank (Rs 307): There is no compelling technical reason to reduce exposures in this stock at current levels. A move to the Rs 340-350 range appears likely.

Remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 290. A move past Rs 350 could be used to book profit in a phased manner.

IPCL (Rs 170): The stock has already touched the earlier mentioned (edition dated October 5) price target of Rs 200.

The near-term trend remains positive and a move to the Rs 220-225 range appears likely. Remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 160.

I am having shares of Arvind Remedies at Rs 5.5 and HCL Infosystems at Rs 366. I can hold for a period of 6 to 9 months. Should I hold this or sell? — M.N. Krishnamurthy

Arvind Remedies (Rs 2.9): There is no discernible price pattern in this stock.

Remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 2.5. Taking into the trading pattern and the entry price, there is no point selling at current levels.

HCL Infosystems (Rs 321.2): The stock could move to the major resistance level of Rs 400-410.

Existing holders could remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 300. Only a close below Rs 270 would negate the possibility of a rally to the Rs 400-410 range.

What are the short-term and long-term prospects for Tata Steel and Federal Bank? — Kusum

Tata Steel (Rs 341.4): As observed in earlier weeks, the stock is in the midst of a major bull run. It has significant upside potential from current levels.

Though there could be short-term corrective phases, the overall trend is up. There is no reason to liquidate holdings in a hurry. Remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 300.

Federal Bank (Rs 155.7): The overall trend is up. A move to the Rs 190-195 range appears likely. On the downside, a drop to the Rs 140 level is not ruled out.

However, this does not negate the possibility of a subsequent rally to the Rs 190-195 range. Remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 144.

What is the outlook for Thomas Cook and Kotak Mahindra Bank? — C. Dayakar

Thomas Cook (Rs 264.7): The stock appears to be in a bullish phase. A rally to the Rs 310-320 range appears likely. Only a drop below Rs 240 would impart bearish trend. Remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 240.

Taking into account the low trading volume and volatile price movement, this stock would be more suitable for investors who are willing to take delivery and wait for a while.

Kotak Mahindra (Rs 340.85): This stock is in the midst of a major uptrend. A move towards the Rs 450-460 range appears likely. The share price is unlikely to motor up to this range quickly. But a steady progress to the Rs 450-460 band appears likely. Stay invested with a stop loss at Rs 290. A move past Rs 370 could be used to take fresh exposures (with a close stop loss) by long-term investors

Readers can send in their queries, on not more than two companies, to

techtrail@thehindu.co.in

Queries can also be sent by post to:

Tech Trail, 859/860 Kasturi Buildings, Anna Salai, Chennnai 600 002

We would endeavour to answer as many queries as possible. However, constraints of space will limit the responses featured under this column.

(Note: The analysis and opinion expressed in these columns are based on the technical analysis of the past price behaviour. Analysis and price targets are based on the Elliott Wave Analysis. There is a risk of loss in trading)

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