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B. Krishnakumar

Kindly inform me the short and medium-term prospects of Global Trust Bank purchased at Rs 26. — Selvin

Global Trust Bank (Rs 21.2): The stock has been stuck in a range in the recent weeks. The overall outlook does not appear positive. A break below Rs 18.5 would have bearish implications. Only a close above Rs 28 would impart some strength. Existing holders could remain invested have a stop loss at Rs 18.8.

Should I hold on to Omax Auto and Sundaram Brake purchased at Rs 80 and Rs 200 respectively. — H. Sunita

Omax Auto (Rs 82.2): The stock is in a corrective phase and could drop to the Rs 72-75 range. However, the overall outlook appears positive. A move to the Rs 110-115 range appears likely. The uptrend should resume after the completion of the ongoing corrective phase. Existing holders could remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 65. Evidence of support at about the Rs 68-70 range could be used to take fresh long positions.

Sundaram Brake Lining (Rs 232): Taking into account the significant upside potential, there is no need to liquidate holdings at current price levels. A move to Rs 300 appears likely. Existing holders could remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 205. A close above Rs 245 could be used to take fresh exposures. The positive view would be negated only if the stock closes below Rs 170.

What is the future outlook of ABB purchased at Rs 475 and Polaris? — Umesh Chinniah

ABB (Rs 498): The outlook appears bullish and a move to the Rs 600-650 range appears likely. There is no need to liquidate holdings in a hurry, as the stock could see a steady uptrend. Only a close below Rs 425 would negate the positive outlook. Remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 425.

Polaris (Rs 150.5): A move to the near-term target of Rs 170-175 appears likely. Remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 135. A trailing stop loss may be employed once the stock moves above Rs 170. A close above Rs 200 could pave the way for a rally to Rs 300.Only a close below Rs 120 would negate the positive outlook.

I anticipate a price of Rs 90 for Philips Carbon and Rs 125 for IVRCL Infrastructure by January 2004. Is it technically correct? — K.Sivakumar

Philips Carbon (Rs 59.7): The outlook for the stock appears positive. A move to a conservative target of the Rs 75-80 range appears likely. But, the time frame within which the target would be achieved cannot be determined using plain technical analysis.

IVRCL Infrastrcuture (Rs 83.6): A detailed view is published elsewhere in this page.

I bought HCL Infosystems at Rs 311and Satyam Computers at Rs 247. Kindly advise me on these two stocks. — K. Anil

HCL Infosystems (Rs 352): The recent uptrend does not appear complete as yet. A move to Rs 400 appears likely. Remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 315. A close above Rs 375 could be used to take fresh long positions. Only a close below Rs 295 would negate the positive outlook.

Satyam Computer (Rs 281.8): The stock could move to the near-term resistance of Rs 300. Remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 260. A detailed view is published elsewhere in this page.

How do Titanor Components and GlaxoSmithKline Pharma appear technically? — Michale D'Cunha & Rajalakshmi Koneru

Titanor Components (Rs 52.6): There is no need to reduce holdings in a hurry as the stock could seek higher levels. A move to the Rs 75-80 range appears likely after the completion of the ongoing phase of consolidation. Have a stop loss at Rs 44 for existing holdings. A drop below this level would blunt the positive view.

GlaxoSmithKline Pharma (Rs 467.7): The stock could move to the immediate resistance level of Rs 500-515. Only a drop below Rs 430 would negate the possibility of such a move. Remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 430.

I have bought Bank of India and Bongaigaon Refineries. Please advise about the future prospects. — Nitin Garg

Bank of India (Rs 57.6): The overall outlook is positive. A move to the Rs 70-75 range appears likely. A close above Rs 63 would impart positive trend and could be used to take exposures. Only a close below Rs 45 would negate the positive outlook. Existing holders may have a stop loss at Rs 51.

Bongaigaon Refineries (Rs 84.6): The stock could seek Rs 125-130 levels in the next few months. However, a drop to the Rs 65-70 range is not ruled out in the near term. The upward trend is likely to resume after the completion of the present downward corrective phase. Risk-averse investors could take profits at current levels and contemplate re-entry at lower levels of Rs 65-70. Long-term investors could take partial profits and hold on to the remaining holding.

What is the outlook for Himachal Futuristic and ITI? — Devi Prakash Tiwari

Himachal Futuristic (Rs 15.8): The stock is in a bearish phase and the recent downtrend does not appear complete. Risk-averse investors could take losses. Those with a high-risk appetite could remain invested with a hope of a recovery in price. Technically, evidence of a recovery in price does not appear on the cards in the near term.

ITI (Rs 19): The stock has been stuck in a range in the recent weeks. It is currently ruling near the support level of Rs 14. A break below this level could result in continuation of the bearish trend. Only a close above Rs 23 would impart a positive trend. Remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 16.

What is technical outlook for D-link and DCW purchased at Rs 84 and 22 respectively? — Chandranathan

D-Link (Rs 105): The stock has some upside potential from current levels. A move to the Rs 118-120 range appears likely. Only a close below Rs 93 would invalidate the positive view. Remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 93. A trailing stop loss could be used if the stock moves past Rs 120.

DCW (Rs 29.2): A move to the Rs 35-40 range appears likely. Remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 25. A close above Rs 33 could be used to take fresh exposures. There is no technical reason to exit the stock in a hurry.

I hold Padmalaya Telefilms (bought at Rs 138) Sri Adhikari Brothers (at Rs 137). Kindly advise about future course of action. — Rajesh Poddar

Padmalaya Telefilms (Rs 91): The stock has the potential to move to the Rs 130-135 range in the near term. Taking into account your purchase price and the overall outlook, remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 81. A drop below Rs 70 would have negative implications. A close above Rs 101 could be used to take long positions with a stop loss at Rs 90.

Sri Adhikari Brothers (Rs 62.9): After a sharp uptrend, the stock has been on a downtrend over the past few weeks. A drop below Rs 57 would result in the continuation of the recent downtrend. Only a move above Rs 70 would impart positive trend. Hold on with a stop loss at Rs 57.

A few weeks ago Hindustan Oil was recommended at Rs 52. The price plummeted to Rs 38 and it is languishing around Rs 44 now. What is the outlook? — C. Dayakar

Hindustan Oil (Rs 46.8): The stock moved to a high of Rs 57 after the recommendation at Rs 51-52 level. It declined below the then-mentioned stop loss level of Rs 45. This should have resulted in a closure of long positions. Those who have not exited on the breach of Rs 45 may remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 40. The earlier view of a move to the Rs 65-70 range remains valid. Only a drop below Rs 37 would invalidate this view.

Is Tisco worth holding even now for the long term? Now that Aurobindo Pharma has attained your projected target of Rs 700 where does it go from here? — V.V. Sundaram

Tata Steel (Rs 318.9): As observed in earlier weeks, the stock still has significant upside potential even from current levels. The stock appears to be in the early stages of a major bull run. There is no need to get out in a hurry. Conservative investors could book partial profits and contemplate re-entry on declines.

Aurobindo Pharma (Rs 677): The recent price pattern indicates that there is still some upside potential for the stock. This however hinges on the ability of the stock to move past the resistance level at the Rs 710-715 range. Risk-averse investors could book profits on a major portion of the portfolio. Stop loss at Rs 640 may be placed for the balance. A move past Rs 710 could be used to take fresh exposures.

Readers can send in their queries, on not more than two companies, to

techtrail@thehindu.co.in

Queries can also be sent by post to:

Tech Trail, 859/860 Kasturi Buildings, Anna Salai, Chennnai 600 002

We would endeavour to answer as many queries as possible. However, constraints of space will limit the responses featured under this column.

(Note: The analysis and opinion expressed in these columns are based on the technical analysis of the past price behaviour. Analysis and price targets are based on the Elliott Wave Analysis. There is a risk of loss in trading)

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