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Sunday, Sep 14, 2003

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Vardhman Acrylics: Reject

C. Raja Rajeshwari

INVESTORS can stay away from the offer for the sale of the equity stake of Mahavir Spinning Mills in Vardhman Acrylics (VAL).

The offer for sale is through the book-building route at a floor price of Rs 10 per share. Despite the company's turnaround in 2002-03, the offer appears an unattractive on the following counts:

  • The company sells more than 50 per cent of its production to the Vardhman group — its promoters. This excessive dependence on the group is a cause for concern.

    Any downturn in the fortunes of the promoter company would hit the profitability of VAL.

    In addition, as a producer of just one product, acrylic fibre (a favoured wool substitute), leaves the company at a disadvantage in an industry which is cyclical in nature.

  • In the past two years, the sales volumes of the acrylic fibre have dropped 11 per cent. The average market price of acrylic fibre has also been on a downtrend.

    The demand for the fibre is closely linked to that for synthetic textiles.

    The company is hopeful of an economic revival leading to an expansion in the disposable income of the middle- and upper-middle classes both in the urban and rural areas.

    However, this optimism is clouded by the company's susceptiblity to change in consumer preferences, from synthetic goods to natural materials such as wool.

  • The company faces threat from cheaper imports. Reduction in Customs duty of acrylic fibre would lead to increased competition from cheaper imports.

    At present, the anti-dumping duties levied are keeping the imports at bay. However, with India being a WTO signatory, the base Customs duty is likely to be reduced over the next three years, leading to lower realisation and stiffer competition for the company.

    Considering these factors, investors need not participate in the book-building process.

    The offer is primarily to disinvest the 2.7-lakh shares (62.2 per cent equity stake) held by Mahavir Spinning Mills. Post-offer, the stake would get reduced to 37.2 per cent.

    The floor price for the offer is Rs 10. At this price, the stock trades at a price earnings multiple of 11 times its 2002-03 earnings.

    The offer opens on September 15and closes on September 19. The lead manager for this offer is ICICI Securities.

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