The Hindu Business Line : Query corner

IDBI (Rs 34): The immediate outlook for the stock does not appear positive. A drop to the Rs 29-30 range appears likely. However, there is a possibility of a short-term rally after the completion of the downtrend. A break below Rs 33 could pave the way for a drop to the 29-30 range. Investors willing to take some risk could remain invested. Risk-averse investors could have a stop loss at Rs 33.

Ranbaxy (Rs 1,038): As mentioned in the past, the overall outlook for the stock is quite bullish. The stock has already achieved the earlier mentioned target price. Taking into account the long-term price charts, the stock appears to have significant upside potential from current levels. Existing holders could remain invested as the stock could yield at least 25-30 per cent for a holding period of six months. At the moment, only a drop below Rs 865 would negate the positive outlook.

What is the outlook for Kakatiya Cement and Kalyani Steel? Should I sell or hold? — Zulfibhai

Kakatiya Cement (Rs 45.2): The overall outlook for the stock is positive. After a steady uptrend, the stock has been in a downward corrective phase in the recent weeks. This downward correction does not appear complete as yet. A drop to Rs 44 appears likely. A break below this level could impart bearishness in the stock. This would also negate the overall bullish outlook. Existing holders could remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 44.

Kalyani Steel (Rs 57): The stock has been stuck in a narrow trading range in the last couple of weeks. The upward trend is likely to resume after the present correction gets completed. A move past Rs 65 would be an early indicator of the resumption of upward trend. A drop below Rs 50 would negate the positive outlook and could push the stock to lower levels.

Kindly give the out look for SB & T International (bought at Rs 33) and Amtek India (at Rs 62). — T. Janardhan Reddy

SB&T International (Rs 35): Though the share price has managed to seek higher levels from Rs 25 a year ago, the upmove does portray a bullish price structure. However, fresh buying may be avoided, as the recent price pattern is not convincing enough to conclude that the stock is in a bullish phase. Existing holders could remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 31.

Amtek India (Rs 65): The stock appears to be headed towards lower levels in the near term. A break below Rs 63 would be an early indicator of the continuation of the recent down move. Existing holders could remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 63. Fresh buying may be avoided.

I have bought 1,000 India cements at Rs 33.25. What is the outlook for the scrip, which I plan to hold for at least a year provided the bull market continues? Can I buy Sonata software at current prices of Rs 14.10 for one-year holding? — Raj Sundaram

India Cements (Rs 32): The stock could seek lower levels in the near term. However, the overall bullish trend is still intact. The share price has significant upside potential from current levels. Investors who are willing to wait for a while can remain invested, as there is no technical reason to reduce exposures at current levels. On the upside, a move past Rs 41 appears likely. Investors can take fresh exposures once the stock closes above Rs 36.

Sonata Software (Rs 14): The stock is unable to make any sort of headway in either direction. There is no compelling technical reason to take equity exposure in the company, as the recent price pattern does not indicate any positive sign.

What are the prospects of Wockhardt? — I. Simhan

Wockhardt (Rs 496): The overall outlook for the stock is bullish. The upward trend is likely to reassert itself once the ongoing correction is over. Only a break below Rs 450 would negate the bullish outlook. A close above Rs 540 would indicate that the stock is back into the bull orbit. Remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 450.

What is the near-term and long-term outlook for Hindustan Lever & Tata Power? — R.Natarajan & S.Viswanath

Hindustan Lever (Rs 194): As observed in earlier weeks, the overall outlook for the stock is bullish. A detailed outlook is available elsewhere on this page.

Tata power (Rs 190): The near-term outlook for the stock appears slightly weak. A drop to the Rs 170-173 range appears likely. At the moment, only a close above Rs 200 would reinstate bullishness. Price upmoves could be used to book partial profits and fresh buying may be considered at a later date.

I bought 500 shares of Lloyd Steel at Rs 8.25 and 1,000 shares of Jindal Vijayanagar Steel at Rs 18.75. Can you please advise me about the trend for the above scrips in the medium term (for the next 3 to 4 months)? — Simon Mathew

Lloyd Steel (Rs 6.9): Though the near-term outlook for the stock appears weak, the overall trend appears positive. On the downside, there is a possibility of a drop to Rs 5. A close above Rs 9.6 would impart positive trend and could help the stock move towards the Rs 13-14 range. Existing holders could remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 6.2.

Jindal Vijayanagar Steel (Rs 15.7): The stock has been on a downtrend in the recent weeks. The long-term trend continues to remain bullish. The recent downward move appears almost complete now. The long-term bullish trend is likely to reassert itself shortly. Existing holders could remain invested while a move past Rs 20 could be used to take fresh exposures.

Should I hold or book losses in Hindustan Motors (1,000 shares bought at Rs 14.3) and Karur Vysya Bank (100 shares bought at Rs 280)? — V. Ramachandran

Hindustan Motors (Rs 15.6): The stock could drop to lower levels of Rs 12.5-13 in the near term. Existing holders could remain invested as the scrip could resume the uptrend after the completion of the expected decline. The stock could eventually make a move towards the recent high of Rs 21. A drop below Rs 12 would warrant dilution of holdings, as the trend would turn bearish thereafter.

Karur Vysya Bank (Rs 267): The scrip is at a critical stage now. While a drop below Rs 243 would have negative implications, a move past Rs 294 would reinstate bullishness. Existing holders could remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 243. Conservative and risk-averse investors can place a stop loss at a higher level of Rs 260.

I purchased Bharat Electronics at Rs 300 and Kochi Refineries at Rs 100. Shall I hold them or sell them? — Hilda D'Silva & Suja George

Bharat Electronics (Rs 427): The stock has some upside potential from current levels. There is no technical reason to reduce exposures at current levels. Taking into account the entry price, it would be better to remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 380. A move past Rs 500 could be used to book partial profits.

Kochi Refineries (Rs 160): Existing investors could hold on to their equity exposures, as the trend appears positive. Though there is a risk of a drop to the Rs 145-148 range, the stock appears to have the potential to move past Rs 180 in the near term. Remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 142.

Readers can send in their queries, on not more than two companies, to techtrail@thehindu.co.in

Queries can also be sent by post to:

Tech Trail, 859/860 Kasturi Buildings, Anna Salai, Chennai 600 002

We would endeavour to answer as many queries as possible. However, constraints of space will limit the responses featured under this column.

(Note: The analysis and opinion expressed in these columns are based on the technical analysis of the past price behaviour. Analysis and price targets are based on the Elliott Wave Analysis. There is a risk of loss in trading)

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