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Sunday, Aug 10, 2003

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Balaji Telefilms: Cash-out of the show

BL Research Bureau

SHAREHOLDERS of Balaji Telefilms can consider booking profits in the stock at the current price of about Rs 76. Any strength, on the back of liquidity flows into the market, can especially be used to cut exposures. We had recommended a buy on the stock at Rs 63 in March and at Rs 52 in end-May 2003. The stock is up 45 per cent since.

New programmes that could further propel sustainable revenue growth have been hard to come by, since the introduction of Kasauti Zindagi Kay 18 months ago. The discontinuation of a few new programmes across channels after a short run; the increase in the proportion of sponsored content, which enhances the risk profile; the continued dependence on just Kyunki Saas Bhi Kabhi Bahu Thi, Kahaani Ghar Ghar Ki and Kasauti; decline in advertisers' interest in some of these programmes; and increasing leeway for Star Plus to source prime-time programme content from other producers are factors that could cap earnings growth. Re-entry can be contemplated at lower levels, on evidence of success in new programming.

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