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Alliance '95 Fund: Book profits

Aarati Krishnan

INVESTORS in the Alliance '95 Fund can use the recent run-up in NAV to book profits and exit.

After consistently figuring among the top three balanced funds until 2000, the fund has been displaced by some of its peers over the past couple of years.

What is more, the fund's good returns have been in large part due to its distinctive style of stock-picking, especially in growth stocks, and a good sense of timing. In this context, the recent exit of the fund manager, Mr Samir Arora, creates some uncertainty about performance.

If his exit leads to significant redemptions from the fund, this could further impact performance.

The fund suffered significant pullouts during the previous episode when there were apprehensions about a change in management.

The NAV has appreciated around 24 per cent over the past four months, affording a good opportunity to book profits.

The following aspects of the investment strategy stand out, from the change in portfolio over the past year:

  • The fund appears to have faced a steady stream of outflows over the past six months.

    Between September 2002 and June 2003, the fund's net assets have shrunk by 26 per cent, to Rs.209 crore, even as its NAV per unit appreciated by 23 per cent between these two dates.

    The outflows began just after October 2002, with the speculation about Alliance Capital's pullout from India.

    But the fund has continued to face net redemptions through the October-December 2002, December-March 2003 and March-June 2003 quarters.

  • Despite the outflows, the fund does not appear to have enhanced its cash positions at the end of each quarter.

    Throughout this period, the fund has either remained fully invested or has shown a small net payables position (indicative of borrowings) at the end of each quarter.

  • The fund has remained an aggressive balanced fund, with an over 70 per cent allocation to equities over the past 6 months. Exposure to equities, which was down to 61 per cent in September 2002 was stepped up to 72 per cent by end of December 2002 and has remained at high levels ever since.

    The aggressive posture on equities has probably helped the fund make the best of the sharp appreciation in equity values over the past four months.

  • The equity portion has been actively and aggressively managed, with considerable churning.

    The fund has consistently preferred to pick stocks with a strong growth momentum, rather than those that appear to be undervalued or command limited market attention.

    This has tended to restrict the portfolio's weights in mid-cap/small-cap stocks, which have been the centre of action over the past year.

  • The fund's sectoral preferences have veered away from commodity and cyclical stocks, towards the growth sectors. For instance, IT remained the top sectoral exposure until as recently as December 2002.

    The fund's IT exposure by end December was at about 23 per cent.

    Exposure to banking stocks, which was at less than 10 per cent until December 2002, has been recently enhanced to around 16 per cent by June 2003.

  • The fund has acquired a higher allocation to cyclical stocks over the past quarter.

    But again, among the cyclical sectors the fund tilts towards sectors such as automobiles, two-wheelers and steel, with allocations to capital goods, commodity chemicals and non-ferrous metals at relatively low levels.

  • The stock selection has been adventurous, with stocks of a risky genre such as United Phosphorus, Jindal Iron and Steel, Trent, UB and Hinduja TMT finding place in the portfolio.

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