![]() Financial Daily from THE HINDU group of publications Sunday, Jul 27, 2003 |
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Investment World
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Technical Analysis Markets - Technical Analysis Query Corner
I purchased Hinduja TMT at Rs 250, Indswift at Rs 78 and Jindal strips at Rs 258. I want to know the short-term outlook for the above stocks. N.G. Rao
Hinduja TMT (Rs 224.8): The overall outlook for the stock appears positive. A move towards the Rs 270-280 range appears likely in the near term. There is no need to exit from this stock in a hurry. Remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 205. Indswift (Rs 24.3): The overall trend in this stock also appears bullish. There is limited downside risk from the current levels. A move towards the Rs 28-30 range appears likely. Remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 20.4. Jindal Strips (Rs 243.05): The share price of this company too appears to be headed towards higher levels. On the upside, the stock could rise to the Rs 275-280 range in the near term. Existing holders could remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 225. Can I have the technical view on PSL Holdings? Rahul PSL Holdings (Rs 65.7): The overall outlook for the stock appears slightly positive. A move past Rs 76 would confirm the positive outlook. On the other hand, a drop below Rs 54 would impart negative sentiment. Remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 54. In the event of an upmove, a trailing stop-loss could be employed to protect unrealised gains. Please advise on the outlook of following stocks I purchased - UTI Bank at Rs 70 and Orchid Chemical at Rs 183. What is the outlook for Aurobindo Pharma? Dinesh
UTI Bank (Rs 75.3): The share price of the company could seek higher levels of Rs 88-90 in the near term. Remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 64.5. A close above Rs 80 could be used to take fresh exposures in the stock. Orchid Chemicals (Rs 158): The overall outlook for the stock is bullish. As emphasised in earlier weeks, a move past Rs 200 appears likely. Remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 140. A move past Rs 175 could be used to take fresh exposures in the stock. Aurobindo Pharma (Rs 402): The long-term outlook for the stock appears positive. However, the share price could rule weak in the near term. A drop to the Rs 355-360 range appears likely. However, the long-term uptrend is likely to reassert itself after the completion of the anticipated downtrend. Given this backdrop, existing holders could remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 378. A move past Rs 420 could be used to take fresh exposures. What are the prospects for Jindal Steel & Power and Ipca Labs? Neeli Jindal Steel (Rs 516.5): The stock has been confined to a relatively narrow range in the recent weeks. A sharp upmove would take shape in the direction of the breakout from the current range. A move past Rs 540 would have positive implications while a drop below Rs 490 could impart weakness. As of now, there is no compelling technical reason to take exposures in this stock. Aggressive risk seeking investors could consider purchases, with a close stop loss if the scrip moves past Rs 540. Ipca Labs (Rs 337): The overall outlook for IPCA Labs appears positive. A move towards the Rs 380-400 range appears likely. The only hitch is that there is a chance of a downside risk in the near term to the Rs 270-280 range. A drop below Rs 300 would be an early indicator of the drop to this range. On the contrary, a move past Rs 350 could impart positive trend and could be used to take long positions with a stop loss at 320. Can the shares of Arvind Mills and Century Textiles be bought at the current price for medium term investment? Sudhakaran
Arvind Mills (Rs 44): There appears to be significant upside potential for this stock from current price levels. A close above Rs 46 could be used to take fresh exposures with a stop loss at Rs 39.4. The scrip could rise to Rs 55-60 levels in the near term. Long-term investors could buy this stock once it closes above Rs 46. Century Textiles (Rs 83.6): Similar to Arvind Mills, the outlook for this stock too appears positive. A move past Rs 86 could impart positive trend. Existing holders could remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 72. Fresh buying may be considered on a move past Rs 86. A drop below Rs 70 would warrant dilution of holdings in the company. I have purchased Geometric Software at Rs 341.Please advise on the future of this scrip. Kandi Rajasekhar
Geometric Software (Rs 334): The long-term outlook for the stock appears positive. However, the stock has been confined to a relatively narrow range in the recent weeks. A breakout from this range would be critical in determining the near-term trend in the stock. A move past Rs 390 would impart positive trend. There is no compelling reason to dilute exposure in the stock in a hurry. However, risk-averse investors could place a stop loss at Rs 305. Please update your outlook on Cipla. R.B. Saboo Cipla (Rs 789): The near term for the stock appears slightly weak. A drop to the Rs 720-730 range appears likely. However, the overall long-term trend is likely to reassert itself once the anticipated correction gets completed. Long-term investors could remain invested while fresh buying may be considered once the stock moves above Rs 840. I bought shares of Infosys and Hughes software at the height of the Internet bubble and never managed to sell them. What do you suggest I do with these shares? Should I hold on to them hoping that they might give out bonus shares in future and that way I can recoup the principal amount? Mr Simhan
Infosys (Rs 3,509.9): The question of recovering the principal amount invested appears a bit far-fetched. Though there is a possibility a further upside potential, the chances of a rally to the acquisition price of Rs 7,500 appears unlikely in the near term. Remain invested with a stop loss for a portion of the holdings at Rs 3,025. Hughes Software (Rs 297.1): The outlook for Hughes is similar to that of Infosys. Though the stock is unlikely to move back to the dizzy highs of the Internet bubble days, there is some upside potential in the near term. Remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 265.
I bought Sundaram Finance at Rs 137 and Procter & Gamble at Rs 433. Please, advise whether to hold or dispose these stocks. S.K. Shanbhag Sundaram Finance (Rs 155): The stock appears to have the potential to move up further from the current levels. A move past Rs 167 would confirm the bullish outlook. On the downside, a drop below Rs 137 could push the stock to the Rs 120-122 range. Given this scenario, existing holders could remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 137. Fresh buying may be considered on a move past Rs 167. Procter & Gamble (Rs 374.7): Though the stock is in a major downtrend for quite some time now, there is limited downside risk from current levels. The stock currently traded close to a major support level of the Rs 360-365 range. Existing holders could remain invested as the stock could see a sizable upmove on the completion of the ongoing downtrend. A move past Rs 405 could be used to take fresh exposure.
Readers to note The technical analysis column on stocks and indices will appear next on August 17. Publication of responses to readers' queries will resume on August 24.Hence, readers are requested to send in their queries to the below mentioned addresses, on or after August 15. Tech Trail, 859-860, Kasturi Buildings, Anna Salai, Chennai - 600 002 (or) e-mail : techtrail@thehindu.co.in
(Note: The analysis and opinion expressed in these columns are based on the technical analysis of the past price behaviour. Views and price targets are based on the Elliott Wave Analysis. There is a risk of loss in trading)
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