![]() Financial Daily from THE HINDU group of publications Sunday, Jun 22, 2003 |
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Investment World
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Interest Rates Money & Banking - Housing Finance Floating rate loans: You are locked into it Suresh Krishnamurthy
As housing loans are usually for at least 15 years, any interest rate rise even five years hence can set you back. It is, thus, better that you wake up to the risk now than be shocked by a rise in interest rate later. For, then, there is not much you can do except try to pre-pay the loans as and when you can. This is because housing loan companies now do not allow conversion of floating rate loans into fixed rate loans. In addition, derivatives that allow you to hedge the risk of rising interest rates are out of your reach now. So, you have no choice but consider prepayments, that can mitigate the impact of an interest rate rise.
Rate risk
What can a rise in the interest rate do? It can have a twin impact for a fresh floating rate loan purchaser. First, the size of monthly payments will increase. If there is a significant spike in interest rates, there is also an additional risk of property prices softening. Why should property value decline? A rise in interest rate can make housing loans out of reach for many new borrowers. This may reduce the demand for residential property. That, in turn, can lead to a decline in the value of residential property.
A significant rise in interest rate can force many of the existing fresh home purchasers to sell their property. This too can depress property prices. Obviously, the interest rate is just one of the factors which influence property prices. But given the strengthening linkages between interest rates and demand for housing loans, these risks cannot be ignored. Therefore, in the event of an interest rate shock, a floating rate loan purchaser may end up paying more for a property.
Prepayment - the only option
A call to HDFC and SBI's local branch confirmed that there is no scheme now to allow conversion of floating rate loans into fixed rate loans. ICICI allows such conversion. However, you may have to pay a penalty which can make the conversion worthless. In short, the three major housing finance companies do not encourage such conversions. In effect, you are locked into a floating rate loan. You can, of course, consider refinancing. That is, take a fresh loan from another housing loan finance company to repay the existing loan. This too will entail a refinancing penalty, of about 2 per cent of the principal outstanding on your loan. Refinancing will, therefore, make sense if:
The rates on SBI floating rate loan were reduced sharply earlier this year.
However, if you are only a few months into the loan then the penalty for refinancing can be stiff. For such people, the only option available is to prepare a programme of prepayment to clear the loan in five to seven years. That brings us to the suitability of floating rate loans.
Floating rate - suitability
Floating rates are, inherently, suitable only for those who want, and have the ability, to repay loans within five-seven years. A floating rate loan is taken when the probability of a decline in interest rate is huge. As the interest rate on floating rate products is lower than that of fixed rate products, the purchaser benefits in the form of lower monthly payments initially. If interest rates do go down, the purchaser benefits even more in the form of still lower monthly payments. The purchaser will also own the property sooner if the loan is prepaid within five-seven years. In fact, decline in interest rates usually has a beneficial impact on property prices. With complete ownership, the purchaser can sell the property for a price higher than at which it was bought. What if the interest rate rises? If rates do rise, then the purchaser's ability to prepay the loan will come to the fore. By repaying the principal amounts faster, the purchaser can reduce the impact of the rise in interest rate. In a 15-year floating rate loan, the purchaser leaves himself open to too many risks. Interest rates can rise and property prices can fall. The ability of the purchaser to honour monthly payments may also change. Overall, it is not a suitable option for a person who does not have the ability to repay loans within five-seven years.
Rate shocks - not expected
For those locked into floating rates, there is a positive aspect to the whole issue. Rate shocks that will significantly affect their plans are not expected in the near-term. In the event of any liquidity crunch, interest rates may at best inch upwards by half a percentage point to one percentage point. Substantial increases in interest rates are not expected. Consider an alternative scenario. The yields on 10-year US government security is now about 4 per cent while the yields of a 10-year Indian government security is about 5.75 per cent. The difference is about 1.75 percentage points. In contrast, the interest rate on a 15-year housing loan is about 5.5 per cent while in India it is about 9.5 per cent. The difference is four percentage points. This difference appears quite high and is likely to narrow. So, even if interest rates in the economy do rise, the rates for housing loan may stay where they are or even decline. However, this scenario might take years to materialise. In any case, a new home loan purchaser who has bought into a floating rate loan need not panic. There is still time to plan a programme of prepayment. Prepayments have another benefit too. Amounts prepaid will save interest of about 9.5 per cent. After considering any reduction in tax benefits, the amount saved would work out to 7-8 per cent. No low-risk investment opportunities are available that fetch such a high post-tax return. So, prepayments provide double benefits higher returns for the cash surplus and protection against a rise in interest rate.
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