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Sunday, May 18, 2003

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Bullish trend in ITC and Infy

B. Krishnakumar

NIFTY (973.1): As anticipated, the move above 957 imparted bullishness in the index. In line with expectations, the index managed to move to the projected target zone of 960-970. The near-term outlook for the Nifty appears positive.

A move towards the 985-990 range could be on the cards. However, the longer-term outlook continues to remain weak. Only a close above 1000 would warrant a re-look at the bearish outlook. Long-term holders could remain invested and use price upmoves to reduce exposures.

ITC (Rs 699.85): As iterated in earlier weeks, the scrip managed to seek higher levels and moved closer to the price target of the Rs 725-750 band. After a prolonged sideway move, ITC has managed to break-out above the downward sloping trend line. The near-term outlook continues to remain bullish. Existing holders could remain invested while a move past Rs 750 could be used to book profit in ITC.

Hindustan Lever (Rs 146.25): The scrip saw a sharp upward spike last week. This has not negated the overall bearish outlook. A drop to the Rs 115-120 range continues to hold its validity. However, in the near term, a move to the Rs 151-152 range could materialise. Existing holders could remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 141. A drop below Rs 141 could be used to take short positions. Fresh buying may be deferred.

Infosys Technologies (Rs 2,994.05): The scrip ruled firm and as mentioned last week, it could move towards Rs 3,400-3,500. Existing holders could remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 2,700. Fresh buying may also be considered on a break above Rs 3,100. A move past Rs 3,400 could be used to trim holdings in Infosys. In the bigger time frame, the earlier view of a drop to the Rs 1500-1800 range is still valid.

Satyam Computers (Rs 178.35): The scrip managed to hold above the bearish trigger price of Rs 150. Some sort of a "wedge" pattern is taking shape in the daily price chart. Considering that the Wedge has an upward slant, a sharp downside move is likely to materialise if the scrip drops below Rs 169. Existing holders could remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 169. Fresh buying may be avoided.

(Note: The analysis and opinion expressed in these columns are based on the technical analysis of the past price behaviour. Analysis and price targets are based on the Elliott Wave Analysis. There is a risk of loss in trading)

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