No clear signals

Sanjiv Shankaran

The average badla turnover for the market was about 10 per cent, lower by about 1.5 percentage points in relation to last week's badla rate.

The aggregate badla turnover was Rs 2,213.32 crore, marginally lower than the previous week's turnover of Rs 2,250.34 crore.

The pattern of the day's badla trading when studied in conjunction with the share price charts presents a hazy picture. At this moment, a clear signal is not discernible.

Infosys Technologies is to come out of the no-delivery phase soon. When that does happen, the impact on the market indices will be significant.

The chart suggests that Infosys may display a bit of weakness next week. If that does happen, sentiment could be adversely affected.

At the same time, a few other index stocks displayed signs of firmness. A few prominent stocks -- that moved up recently -- which may display a firm undertone in the near term are as follows:

Zee Telefilms, Satyam Computers, Ranbaxy Laboratories, Dr Reddy's Laboratories, Larsen & Toubro, Cipla and Gujarat Ambuja Cement seem to have a firm undertone.

In this context, institutional investment assumes huge significance. The previous BSE settlement saw a significant inflow from foreign institutional investors (FIIs).

The FIIs' allocation decisions for the medium-term should take place soon, a factor which generally leads to traders taking positions in stocks that may attract their interest.

Increased interest in pharmaceutical stocks, cement stocks, and perhaps odd media and fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) stocks seem likely.

In this backdrop, in addition to the aforementioned stocks, Nestle and State Bank of India (SBI) may also display a firm trend in the near-term.

The previous week witnessed a small rally among frontline stocks. Unlike other rallies in the last few months, this one recorded a firm trend across-the-board. Old economy stocks, especially cement stocks, were in the forefront.

Grasping at the glimmer of hope that came through increased cement despatches by Gujarat Ambuja in October 2000 in relation to the previous October, the market quickly bid up cement stocks.

Joining the cement stocks in the ride up the charts, were pharmaceutical stocks such as top-rung Indian companies like Cipla and Ranbaxy.

In the light of an improved situation in the domestic formulation market, top-rung Indian stocks may be in the limelight in the near-term.

Finally, all the stocks were joined by a firm trend in new economy stocks such as Satyam Computers, Global Tele and Zee Telefilms.