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Vinson Kurian

THIRUVANANTHAPURAM, May 27

WHILE the delayed onset of the southwest monsoon 2003 has been accepted more or less as a fait accompli, opinion is now divided on when the rains would actually hit the Kerala coast.

When contacted, the Director of the local Met Office, Mr M. D. Ramachandran, said he expected the onset to happen within two to three days after the normal onset date of June 1. However, acclaimed monsoon expert and former Director of the IMD, Dr P.V. Joseph, begged to differ. According to him, the onset would be late by seven to 10 days.

As per Dr Joseph's take, the onset is hinged to the successful play-out to set patterns of a seesaw phenomenon between northern Indian Ocean and Western Pacific. A lot of rain activity had been happening over the northern Bay around the first week of May associated with the formation of the tropical cyclone. This was around the time the IMD officially declared the monsoon activity as `live'. Subsequently the cyclone moved and crossed Myanmar coast on May 19, taking the rain with it.

After reaching the western Pacific, the system got converted itself into a typhoon over Philippines/North China Sea. The activity continues to be in the Western Pacific, although the system is reducing in strength.

In Dr Joseph's view, the monsoon would gather momentum only after the cloud formation and rainfall returned to the Indian Ocean, with a focus on southeast Arabian Sea. With the typhoon over western Pacific dissipating, the rains can return to the Indian Ocean any time now. It would then take about 10 to 12 days to reach the Kerala coast and set up the onset. This is what leads Dr Joseph to guess that the onset would happen a week to 10 days late this time.

While Mr Ramachandran agrees with the observation that the cyclone-typhoon combine might have pulled the monsoon currents away, he says the position have been retrieved with flow patterns in the form of cross equatorial currents having been established and picking up speed. The flows were disturbed after an untimely `low' over Madagascar on May 8 upset the normal `high' over the Muscarine Islands from where the currents originate.

But, this has since been set right, and it is now just a matter of the trigger system setting over the Arabian Sea to bring the rains to the Kerala coast. Mr Ramachandran did not think it would take anything more than two-to-three days from June 1 for this to happen.

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