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The large accumulation of rice and wheat stocks, along with a distinct shift in consumption pattern from cereals to non-cereals, calls for radical policy changes in the agriculture sector in favour of commercial crops, says the Survey.

NEW DELHI, Feb. 26

A SEVEN per cent growth in foodgrains output would have been a cause for celebration a couple of years ago. But not today.

Even while the Pre-Budget Economic Survey 2001-02 has estimated that foodgrain production this fiscal will record 209.2 million tonnes as against 195.9 million tonnes during the previous year, it has sounded a note of caution.

The large accumulation of rice and wheat stocks, along with a distinct shift in consumption pattern from cereals to non-cereals, calls for radical policy changes in the agriculture sector in favour of commercial crops, it has said.

The Survey estimated the growth of this year's rice output at 91 million tonnes - compared to 84.9 million tonnes last year - while that of wheat had been pegged at 73.1 million tonnes as against 73.1 million tonnes earlier. The output of pulses was also likely to be over two million tonnes, it added. Moreover, the late rains in the North-West in early February accompanied by prolonged cold spells augured well for wheat production.

Hence, a record foodgrains output of 212 million tonnes could not be ruled out, it said. However, the unusually high procurement of rice and wheat by Food Corporation of India had resulted in huge surplus stocks - much above the buffer stock norms.

The main contributing factors have been the Government's policy of announcing large increases in MSP, poor offtake under public distribution system and change in the structure of demand for cereals. "A key development that has to be borne in mind is the change in food preferences due to rise in incomes, which is causing a shift in consumption from cereals to non-cereals. The policy focus today has to be on raising productivity of other crops.''

In this context, the Survey said that production of jute and mesta was likely to be higher this fiscal at 10.7 million bales than 10.5 million bales last year. The downtrend in oilseeds, particularly groundnut, during the preceding two years appeared to have been reversed this year.

The country is likely to harvest over 21 million tonnes of oilseeds compared to 18.4 million tonnes last year. Cotton production is also expected to be higher by over two million bales. Apart from a policy shift, what was needed for diversification of agricultural production was development of rural infrastructure.

This includes transportation, rural roads, improved and reliable power supply, watershed management, cold storage and agri food processing facilities, quality testing labs and institutional support by way of the new market facilities, and removal of restrictions on stock limits and agri product movement.

"Agriculture research and extension would also require reorientation to meet the changing needs of the agriculture sector. Emphasis on minimum price support, which has benefited only rice and wheat crops at the expense of other crops and agri products, requires a fresh policy focus so that crop diversification gains momentum.''

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