The Hindu Business Line : India likely to achieve 7-8% growth next fiscal: Montek

The Deputy Chairman of the Planning Commission, Mr Montek Singh Ahluwalia, has expressed the hope that the country’s growth will be 7-8 per cent in 2010-11.

Delivering the convocation address at Manipal University at Manipal on Monday, Mr Ahluwalia said that in the first year of the crisis, India’s growth slowed down to 6.7 per cent in 2008-09.

“In the current year 2009-10, we are battling the combined effect of the continuing global slowdown and a truly unusual drought. We expect the growth in the current year to be around 6.5 per cent,” he said.

While this growth is distinctly lower than in the pre-crisis years, it is actually better than what the country experienced in 10 years from 1992 to 2002. In fact, the country has performed much better than most other countries. Indeed India is the second fastest growing country in the world today after China.

“We hope to do much better in 2010-11 when the world will be on a path to recovery and we will have the beneficial impact of a normal monsoon. Our growth rate should be back somewhere between 7 and 8 per cent in 2010-11,” he said.

India is well poised to achieve steady growth at around 9 per cent or so per year for an extended period of time. Highlighting the implications of the 9 per cent growth, Mr Ahluwalia said if GDP grows at 9 per cent and population grows at 1.5 per cent then per capita GDP will grow by 7.5 per year.

Change in per capita income brings with it all manner of structural change. New demands are generated and new products come into play and with them new technologies. Growth in per capita income is more important than mere GDP growth, he said.

He urged the students to devote at least some of their working life to serve in the government sector. As the country develops, the role of the Government will also increase though in a very different way from the role it performed in the past. To perform its increasingly complex task, the Government — whether at the Centre or the State — will need skilled personnel with a diversity of experience, he added.