The Hindu Business Line : Maize crop outlook in a maze

Maize (corn) has turned out to be a real trail blazer in the last few years. Once its production touched 10 million tonnes (mt), the output has simply zoomed. Since 2003-04, at least 14 mt is being produced annually in the country.

The year 2007-08 could be said to be a defining one for maize in the country. That year, exports were a record 5.5 mt and farmers across the country got good returns for their crop. That helped the area under the crop to rise to 8.26 lakh hectares and production to a record 19.30 mt with 13.93 mt coming from kharif.

AP estimate

This then raises a question on this year’s kharif output. The advance estimate from the Andhra Pradesh Government isn’t encouraging. The State projects a 34 per cent drop in the crop and fears there could be further bad news in store. According to the estimates, the production could be 1.25 mt against 1.57 mt last year.

“We are expecting the bulk of Andhra Pradesh crop in January only. But the crop in other States such as Karnataka and Maharashtra is reported to be good,” says Mr Madan Prakash Murughasan, Director of the Chennai-based Exim Rajathi India Pvt Ltd.

Arrivals from Karnataka will begin in a fortnight, while they have been delayed in Maharashtra. “But the quantity and quality in Maharashtra remain unaffected,” he said.

Maize is one of the crops that has been badly affected in Karnataka. Government officials are indicating some drop in the State’s production.

Problem spots are Rajasthan and Gujarat but these States are not seen damaging the crop prospects.

“We don’t think we will see a rise in maize production this year. It could be around last year level, plus or minus two per cent,” says Mr A. Rajkumar of the Chennai-based Alagendran Group of Companies.

“There is not much clue about production. The crop has received a setback in Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka,” says Mr Amit Sachdeva, Indian representative of the US Grains Council. “Andhra Pradesh seems to be a real trouble spot,” says Mr Rajkumar.

Various players in the industry are playing safe, pegging the output around last year’s level of 13.93 mt. A difference between 2007 and now is that the crop’s supply is not dependant on exports. “We are confident that domestic demand will be strong for maize this year,” says Mr A. Rajkumar.

Maize is used as feed for cattle and poultry besides the starch industry is the main consumer.

Already, the poultry sector is complaining about high prices but trade sources see the prices dropping as arrivals gather pace.

Though the Centre has kept the minimum support price unchanged at Rs 840 a quintal, trade sources see the prices dropping to a little lower than Rs 800.

“Currently, the prices are quoting around Rs 800. We don’t see sharp fall in the prices,” the sources say.

“The prices could rule around Rs 760 once arrivals pick up,” says Mr Madan Prakash.

(With inputs from M.R. Subramani)

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