The Hindu Business Line : Govt raises 2008-09 foodgrain output estimates by 4 mt

The Agriculture Ministry’s ‘Fourth Advance Estimate’, finalised last week, puts the country’s total foodgrain output for 2008-09 at an all-time-high of 233.88 million tonnes (mt), bettering the earlier record of 230.78 mt achieved in 2007-08.

The latest 233.88 mt figure is also more than the ‘Third Advance Estimate’ of 229.85 mt and the ‘Second Advance Estimate’ of 227.88 mt, released in May and February, respectively.

Much of the upward revision is on account of wheat and maize.

The 2008-09 wheat crop’s size is now reckoned at a new high of 80.58 mt, compared with the preceding estimates of 77.63 mt and 77.78 mt. The reassessment follows an unprecedented 25.14 mt of procurement by Government agencies, surpassing the 22.69 mt that was mopped up from the 2007-08 crop of 78.57 mt.

The output estimates of maize have likewise been raised from 17.04 mt (February) and 18.48 mt (May) to a record 19.29 mt. The other crops whose production is seen to have touched all-time-highs in 2008-09 are rice (99.15 mt), gram (7.05 mt) and castorseed (1.12 mt).

Progressive policies

The Agriculture Minister, Mr Sharad Pawar, has sought to credit the record output achieved in 2008-09 to the “progressive policies” adopted by the United Progressive Alliance Government to give a boost to the farm sector.

During the term of the previous National Democratic Alliance, the country’s foodgrain production went up from 203.61 mt in 1998-99 to 213.19 mt in 2003-04, i.e. only 9.58 mt or 4.7 per cent over five years.

But in the five-year tenure of the UPA, output rose to 233.88 mt, i.e. by 20.69 mt or 9.7 per cent, Mr Pawar said while replying to the debate on his Ministry’s Demand for Grants in the Lok Sabha on Monday.

Among the measures that the Minister identified as having given a thrust to farm growth were the significant increases in minimum support prices of crops and revival of public investment in agriculture over the last five years.

Current year trend

The current year may, however, reverse the trend of four consecutive years of production increase. If present kharif season sowing and weak monsoon precipitation levels are any indication, 2008-09 will be a tough act to follow. The high base of 2008-09 could even translate into a low, if not negative, agricultural growth for 2009-10, thereby, impacting the overall GDP numbers as well.

Production prospects

A clearer idea of the production prospects for 2009-10 would be available by September, when the Agriculture Ministry will come out with its ‘First Advance Estimates’ of the kharif crop that is currently being sown.

The subsequent estimates would give a more complete picture, as they will also capture the rabi crop planted towards the winter.

Sugarcane

The difference in production between the various estimate stages is best exemplified by sugarcane.

In its ‘First Advance Estimate’, the Ministry projected the 2008-09 sugarcane crop at 294.66 mt, which got successively downgraded to 290.45 mt, 289.23 mt and 271.25 mt in the following three estimates.

This is opposite to what has happened in wheat and maize.

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