The Hindu Business Line : It’s raining, but…

A sizeable decline in the output of major food crops is likely and the Government should urgently move to augment availability of foods likely to be in short supply.

Over the past fortnight, it has rained heavily in most parts of the country that were thirsting for water; and the forecast is for further bouts in the next few days. The overall deficit in precipitation has declined, but it is still high enough to be disconcerting for farmers, consumers and the Government alike. Kharif area coverage for almost all major field crops, except cotton, has slipped. It is unlikely to be significantly made up in the coming days. Assuming that th e monsoon behaves normally from now on, the availability of drinking water and cattle fodder may cease to be a worry; but the kharif prospects, in terms of both volume and quality, are far from reassuring. A sizeable decline in the output of major food crops such as paddy, coarse cereals, pulses and oilseeds is most likely.

It is imperative that the Government takes cognisance of the threat, even if somewhat muted of late, to kharif crop production. Food price inflation is already at a high level and is poised to rise further. An indication that the Government has taken note of the potentially explosive price situation is provided by the ban on the export of 10 lakh tonnes of wheat recently permitted through three state agencies. Export of non-basmati rice may also be ruled out by the same token. While such trade restrictions may have become unavoidable, New Delhi will have to go much beyond that. A series of festivals are to begin next month, going up to end-October. Consumption of grains, cooking oil and sugar increases manifold during the period and unchecked price rise is sure to cause consumer discontent. It may be tempting for the Government to impose administrative controls such as storage limits and movement restrictions on the trade, but these will have limited effect.

The way forward is to initiate urgent steps to augment availability of foods likely to be in short supply. Stocks of grains with the Food Corporation of India must be effectively deployed. The Food Ministry must in right earnest begin open market sale of wheat and rice. Rice surplus States such as Andhra Pradesh that have clamped down on movement of rice beyond its borders should be directed to lift the restriction. The private trade is nursing about 10 lakh tonnes of unsold palm oil in different parts of the country. Instead of arranging for fresh imports through its agencies, the Government may procure a part of it domestically at a scientifically determined price. If there was a time to strengthen the public distribution system, it is now. In addition to rice and wheat, supply of cooking oil and pulses through the PDS would immensely help the poor fight inflation.

Related Stories:
Fresh rains trim deficit to 32%, more to come
Short-term crops mooted to overcome monsoon delay
Cotton output forecast unchanged
Govt should procure excess vegoil from importers for PDS

More Stories on : Editorial | Climate & Weather | Foodgrains

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