The Hindu Business Line : Truant rains

The three-week delay in the South-West monsoon has caused tremendous consternation among farmers, the people and the government alike. Planting has been delayed in many parts of the country primarily because growers are looking for some soil moisture to begin sowing. Where some pre-monsoon sowing took place, crops in their early stage of growth are thirsting for water. The risk perception about the next kharif crop prospects becomes graver with the India Meteorological Dep artment’s latest assessment that the rainfall may be ‘below normal’ for the season as a whole. For a country of India’s size, temporal and spatial distribution of rains is critical. The experience of this season once again highlights the urgent need to further hone predictive capabilities, especially for the sake of the farm sector.

Even if the total rainfall were 93 per cent of the long-period average, as the IMD has predicted, the crop prospects would not suffer so much if rains are evenly spread; this, it seems, is not to be. The crop production pattern is most likely to change with growers opting to plant short-duration crops or such varieties of the crop they usually plant. It is poor consolation that the June deficit will be made up in July. For, this could result in excessive rains, as July is the month of maximum precipitation. Clearly, the emerging situation is of deep concern and fraught with risks. Indeed, there is some and as yet unquantifiable threat to major kharif crops such as paddy, coarse cereals, oilseeds, cotton and sugarcane. Reports of widespread rains in the eastern region and the country’s groundnut bowl, Gujarat’s Saurashtra region, over the last two days are encouraging. The message from the Met Office simply means that the country is not heading for a widespread drought similar to 2002; but is facing an early season aberration. Importantly, there will be no shortage of water for drinking purposes and agriculture, nor is a fodder shortage likely. It may also be time to give priority to investment in building check-dams and rejuvenating decrepit water-bodies so that the limited rainfall is best harnessed.

The Centre and the States have to be on high alert to support crop production efforts as without their intervention a shortfall in production of major kharif crops looks a distinct possibility. Policymakers have to monitor the emerging situation and ready themselves to tackle shortage and rising prices of essential food products, especially sugar, edible oil and pulses. The sizeable public stocks of wheat and rice should be deployed effectively to ensure uninterrupted supplies and to keep prices in check. It is essential that the poor are protected from food inflation. The Budget ought to factor this in, and revenue considerations should not tempt the Finance Minister to impose or raise import tariffs on essential foods in short supply.

Related Stories:
Scanty rainfall causes worry among farmers
‘Below normal’ monsoon may delay kharif sowing
Truant monsoon adds to tea production woes
Met Dept update may indicate ‘below normal’ monsoon

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