The Hindu Business Line : Old and new forces clash in AP

Hyderabad: For the first time in Andhra Pradesh, it will be multi-corner contests in the two-phase elections to the Lok Sabha and Legislative Assembly in April 2009. The ruling Congress, under Dr Y. S. Rajasekhara Reddy, will face a tough challenge from the Telugu Desam led by Mr N. Chandrababu Naidu, smarting from the drubbing in 2004, and the emerging Praja Rajyam Party (PRP) floated by megastar Mr K. Chiranjeevi.

While Dr YSR, who has surprised most political observers especially Congressmen by completing a full five-year term as AP Chief Minister, is going all out to retain power, Mr Chandrababu Naidu has in a desperate gamble to regain power at any cost, forged a Grand Alliance (Maha Kutami), with a clutch of parties and even sacrificed several seats in the 294-member Assembly and for the 42 Lok Sabha seats.

The Grand Alliance

Mr K. Chiranjeevi

The Grand Alliance consists of the TDP, the TRS, the CPI and the CPI(M). This combination is all set to give the Congress, which swept the 2004 polls in partnership with the TRS, a run for its money. While the Congress won 185 Assembly and 29 Lok Sabha seats, the TRS bagged 26 and 5, respectively.

The Telugu Desam, which was routed and reduced to just 47 seats in the Assembly and five in the Lok Sabha in 2004, has a lot of ground to cover to be back in the reckoning. Sensing that neither his pro-reform, fast-track development of State nor his charisma quite appealed , Mr Naidu has done a volte-face on policies and taken to the politics of sops, political alignments and opportunism to make his way back to power. He has somehow mustered the cinema glamour quotient, that has a say at the hustings by roping in Nandamuri Balakrishna and Junior NTR -- N.T. Rama Rao’s son and grandson respectively -- to bolster the campaign.

Generally in AP, elections have been straight contests with the Congress taking on a regional party, the Left parties or the Bharatiya Janata Party depending on the place. The rise of the Telugu Desam Party (TDP), under film superstar N. T. Rama Rao in 1983, transformed the elections into a Congress-TDP fight. But now there are several new and old players in the fray, the most significant being the Telangana Rastra Samithi (TRS).

Capitalising on the idea of statehood for the Telangana region, Mr K. Chandrasekhara Rao created the TRS to make a mark in the largely semi-arid and less developed region.

It contested the 2004 elections in alliance with the Congress. Frustrated by the Congress on its demand, KCR first pulled out of the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) and then from the Dr YSR Government. Now, the TRS is part of the Grand Alliance, with focus on the Telangana region which has 120 Assembly seats.

It will contest 45 Assembly and nine Lok Sabha seats. But will its image and fortunes revive, given its mixed showing in the by-elections and though for five years, it has kept alive the Telangana sentiments, but not clinched it?

Then, Chiranjeevi’s PRP, which had to struggle to get a common poll symbol, will contest all the Assembly and Lok Sabha seats.

Eyeing backward caste vote

Dr Y.S. Rajasekhara Reddy

Its influence, however, is visible in the two Godavari districts of coastal Andhra and pockets of Rayalaseema and Telangana. To bring together the Kapu community and a host of backward castes (forming about 46 per cent of the State population) and lower castes for a shot at power in the State is a big challenge for the PRP. In AP, the major caste groups of Reddy, Kamma, Brahmins and Velama have wielded power.

The PRP is seen as a big threat to the chances of the Telugu Desam in the coastal districts (the latter’s stronghold). There is a problem, however. The Congress, which had won a majority of seats in this region in 2004, could lose some of the seats to the PRP. If the PRP, which believes it can get majority independently, bags a good number of seats, it will emerge a critical element in the post-poll power politics.

The BJP, which has been an ally of the Telugu Desam for long, finds itself alone this time. Though a marginal player in the State, the national party has decided to contest 240 Assembly (for the first time it will field candidates in more than 100 seats) and 38 Lok Sabha seats, in its bid to test its vote-gathering ability across Telangana, Rayalaseema and coastal Andhra. It had just two seats in the 2004 House.

The MIM (Majlis-Itehadul-Muslimeen), restricted to Hyderabad but a strong local force especially in the walled city, can emerge an important player if it picks up the expected 10 seats and it is a hung Assembly. The MIM has a long-standing, tacit understanding with the Congress.

The Lok Satta Party of Dr Jayaprakash Narayan (also contesting all seats), the Samajwadi Party, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the Madiga Reservation Porata Samithi are all in the fray.

Will the elections throw up a fractured mandate? Is AP headed towards a coalition rule? Is there space for more regional parties?

These are some of the questions that political pundits are grappling with.

Related Stories:
Will AP hand it to the Congress again?
Halt Gangavaram port work: Chiranjeevi
Can Chiranjeevi do an NTR?

More Stories on : Politics | Andhra Pradesh

Article E-Mail :: Comment :: Syndication :: Printer Friendly Page

Stories in this Section
BJP vs Congress: The tale told by manifestos

Old and new forces clash in AP

Polls keep Mumbai coastal security plan at bay

Can PMK convert support base into votes in TN?

Poll bonanza awaits Air India