The Hindu Business Line : Building mini-heat wave may spare wheat crop

Thiruvananthapuram, Feb. 17 Wheat-growing areas of northwest India would be largely seen kept safe from a mini-heat wave building over west and adjoining central India where minimum temperatures have started climbing.

The wheat crop is at elongation/heading stage at many parts of Punjab and Haryana. Farmers had been advised to delay a second/third round of irrigation in view of rainfall brought by incoming western disturbances.

International models show that West Madhya Pradesh and parts of Telangana/Vidarbha would variously serve as focal points (above 40 deg Celsius) around which the southerly heat wave would consolidate during the rest of this month and early into March.

TO SHIFT EAST

The heating will be mainly concentrated to the west and west-central India to start with; but from February 25 onwards the region with the maximum heating would shift to east-central peninsula and the east.

The region extending from Gujarat to the east through Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, Jharkhand and parts of Chhattisgarh may feel the heat during this phase.

The heat wave is seen dropping anchor over coastal Andhra Pradesh and parts of Rayalaseema by early March, as per these forecasts, though there was no indication for how long.

Isolated rain or snow has been forecast for Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir and Uttarakhand until Thursday.

Weather will be mainly dry in the rest of northwest India but rain or thundershowers are likely at isolated places over Arunachal Pradesh and north Assam to the east and northeast in line with the movement of the western disturbance.

MORE WESTERLIES

Meteorological analysis and numerical weather prediction models suggest no significant change in minimum temperatures over the Indo-Gangetic plains during the next two days. But they would look up ahead of the arrival of a feeble western disturbance from Thursday.

International models see entry of follow-up western disturbances on February 24 and March 2, although it is likely that weaker ones may show up in between. Snow or rain has been indicated for Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarkhand, parts of Punjab and west Uttar Pradesh during this phase.

In the south, Kerala and Lakshadweep witnessed isolated rainfall events over the past few days from lingering moisture foisted by westerlies that occasionally dipped into the Arabian Sea.

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