The Hindu Business Line : President Obama and India

During President Bush’s years in the White House, relations between New Delhi and Washington had touched a new high, the Indo-US nuclear deal being symptomatic of this phase of bilateral relations since 1947. With George Bush’s exit, the question now is whether the relationship will endure and be further nurtured by the Obama Administration or will there be a change that will occasion revisions in other strategic linkages mainly associated with foreign policy?

Some analysts have argued that it is too early to try to answer the question because Barack Obama has just entered the White House. There are others who will debunk this line of thinking on the persuasive ground that President Obama had already chalked out what his policy generally — and not merely in relation to India — would be much before he took the oath of office. His appointments to critical departments of the US Government are flowing thick and fast, and it stands to reason that the hard work of implementing the policies of the new regime has already begun, which means that the broad policy parameters are already in place.

Nuclear Club

In foreign policy, the proof that this is in fact what is happening today has been provided by the ‘agenda’ that has been released officially, the document setting out the broad contours of the problem areas perceived to be confronting the US State and the general principles that should guide the conduct of US foreign policy. As far as the agenda goes, on the face of it India does not figure at all, a proposition that may be challenged by citing the focus on strengthening the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which New Delhi has not signed. Superficially, there may be a point here, but to this correspondent the very wording of the section concerned would suggest that the Obama team has left room for accommodating India, which is today squarely in the Nuclear Club but has not signed the NPT.

The paragraph reads: “Obama and Biden will crack down on nuclear proliferation by strengthening the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty so that countries like North Korea and Iran that break the rules will automatically face strong international sanctions.” The associated paragraph on a nuclear-free world stipulates that the new Administration “will set a goal of a world without nuclear weapons, and pursue it,” and that it will “stop the development of new nuclear weapons,” referring in particular to relations with Russia in this regard. Importantly, however, the old point has been reiterated, namely, that the US would “always maintain a strong deterrent as long as nuclear weapons exist.” By doing so, Washington may have deliberately left the door ajar for an equally nuclear-responsible country like India (actually a unique case among the handful of nations which have not signed the NPT) which needs to wield a nuclear deterrence vis-À-vis errant neighbours.

Can one draw any inference from this as far as the India-US nuclear deal is concerned, specifically whether Washington’s strong support for New Delhi in the run-up to the acceptance of the deal by Congress will be a policy which will continue to be pursued by the Obama Administration? A question of this sort cannot easily be answered at this moment, but the very fact that the agenda has steered clear of the deal (and, in a sense, has left the ‘India case’ high and dry) could perhaps suggest that the future of Indo-US ties in this specific regard could continue to be stable.

Of course, a specific reference to India in the nuclear-section of the agenda would have been much more preferable from New Delhi’s point of view. Indeed the fact that this has not happened can be cited by the pessimists as a clear indication that President Obama is not as enthusiastic about ties with India as was his predecessor.

In fact, Africa appears to have already occupied a place in the Obama radar, the relevant paragraph in the agenda on expansion of the US diplomatic presence stating: “To make diplomacy a priority, Obama and Biden will stop shuttering consulates and start opening them in difficult corners of the world — particularly in Africa.”

Pak, China in focus

Is the Indian subcontinent a ‘difficult’ part of the world for Washington? If it was, the agenda would have referred to it as such. Since it has not, the conclusion would probably be that, even if it is considered to be a problematic area for US policy, it is not as important an issue as some of the others that have found a place in the agenda. But the subcontinent comprises, among other nations, Pakistan, which in fact has been given pride of place, along with Afghanistan, in the document by being cited in the very first section. The new Administration has said rather blandly that it “will increase non-military aid to Pakistan and hold them accountable for security in the border region with Afghanistan,” a line that prompted Islamabad to scurry to Beijing for tactical support.

Talking of Beijing, there is not much in the agenda that should bring cheer to the Chinese, specially when the new US Administration has referred to China as a country which should ‘play by international rules.’ The references to Iran and North Korea are on predictable lines, all of which should have the effect of not overly upsetting New Delhi just because it does not figure in the agenda. And yet, there is no denying the stark fact that in the emerging scenario in Asia only amateurs in diplomacy would make it a point to ignore India, specially when China has already been branded officially by the US as a country not averse to breaking international rules.

‘New partnerships in Asia’

The sub-section on seeking ‘new partnerships in Asia’ is perhaps what should be studied in extra depth by New Delhi because it is here that the gap between the Obama and Bush Administrations is the widest as far as India-US relations are concerned. The relevant passage reads: “Obama and Biden will forge a more effective framework in Asia that goes beyond bilateral agreements, occasional summits, and ad hoc arrangements, such as the six-party talks on North Korea. They will maintain strong ties with allies such as Japan, South Korea and Australia, (and) work to build an infrastructure with countries in East Asia that can promote stability and prosperity . . .”

Clearly, these are the old fault lines that were active when the Cold War was at its height. It is rather strange that a Democratic President should hark back to the old days in an era when the economic face of the world is changing rapidly and beyond recognition.

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