The Hindu Business Line : Cotton output seen lower than estimates

Mumbai, Dec. 18 Cotton production is expected to drop 11 per cent to 285.50 lakh bales (of 170 kg) in the crop season 2008-09 against the Cotton Advisory Board’s initial estimate of 322 lakh bales in October, according to Bhaidas Cursondas & Co survey.

Arrivals have dropped 20 per cent to 86 lakh bales against 107 lakh bales as on December 11. Weak demand due to the economic slowdown, coupled with high prices, has resulted in traders keeping away from the market.

Arrivals in the central zone including Gujarat, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh fell sharply to 42 lakh bales till December 13, against 64 lakh bales registered in the same period last year. Gujarat witnessed a sharp drop in arrivals at 19.50 lakh bales against 35.50 lakh bales last year.

In the southern States such as Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, it was up marginally to 18 lakh bales against 17 lakh bales last year, while in the northern States – Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan – where the season in nearing end, arrivals were slightly lower at 22.20 lakh bales against 22.55 lakh bales last year.

Consumption may fall

Domestic consumption may fall to 228 lakh bales against 241 lakh bales registered last year, while exports are likely to decline 41 per cent to 50 lakh bales against 85 lakh bales exported last year, the survey noted.

Erratic monsoon and delayed sowing has taken its toll on yield which was earlier expected to be at 591 kg a hectare against 560 kg last year. “There are also reports of minor pest attack in Andhra Pradesh, but the impact on the overall production is not yet clear,” said an analyst.

Mr S.M. Makhria, Vice-President, Cotton Association of India, said: “We expect about 10-15 per cent fall in production. However, a final estimate will be released after the association takes into account various data made available.”

To facilitate exports of quality cotton, the association has been authorised to issue ‘Certificate of Origin’. It has also set up international standard testing laboratory in Rajkot to certify.

L.N. Revathy reports from Coimbatore: “There is a wide spread apprehension about a reduction in the crop size to 285 – 290 lakh bales this season because of the wet weather conditions and disease infestation in plants, particularly in Gujarat. Reports have just started to come in,” said Mr K.N. Viswanathan, Honorary Secretary, South India Cotton Association.

“Markets are ruling at steady to easy levels. Mill buying is slow and limited. Cotton Corporation of India is the only regular buyer,” says Mr Viswanathan.

“Exports are also almost nil. There is no enquiry from China (biggest buyer of Indian cotton) and the Far-East. Bangladesh has procured small quantity and Pakistan - abstained from buying, due to political reasons and global recession,” he said and pointed out that export to Pakistan during the previous season was around 15 lakh bales.