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Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram, Dec. 17 The heavy to very heavy rainfall over coastal Tamil Nadu relented on Wednesday due to incursion of dry and colder northeasterlies caressing the north Bay of Bengal.

Only isolated rainfall occurred over Tamil Nadu and Lakshadweep while dry weather prevailed over Kerala, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka, an update from the Chennai Met Centre said.

Forecast for the next two days said that rain or thundershowers are likely at a few places over south Tamil Nadu, north coastal Tamil Nadu and Puducherry. Isolated rain or thundershowers have been forecast for north interior Tamil Nadu, Lakshadweep and south Kerala.

The Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), the global band of ‘low’ responsible for setting up weather in the tropics and currently straddling the equator, can still drive rain into the extreme south peninsula.

The US-based Centre for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies has assessed that south Tamil Nadu and adjoining Kerala could come in for occasional showery weather until December 25.

The US Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) model sees some rain activity over the south Tamil Nadu coast on Thursday. This rain belt will then be driven west-northwest to the southeast Arabian Sea and away from the Kerala coast.

Another wave of showers is forecast to approach the southern Sri Lanka coast by December 24 up to which forecasts were available.

In the north, the prevailing western disturbance is expected to cause scattered to fairly widespread rain or snowfall activity over the next 3-4 days.

India Meteorological Department said in its update on Wednesday that a fresh trough (of low pressure) in the westerlies was approaching the northwest border, which would scale up the intensity of rains/snowfall along the western Himalayan region during this weekend.

Minimum temperatures over northwest and adjoining west-central India are above normal by 3-4 degrees celsius except West Rajasthan and parts of Gujarat where they are above normal by 6-10 degree celsius.

This is attributed to the presence of the ‘steaming engine’ at the front of the western disturbance marked by moist and rising air and which leads to the build-up of cloud cover. The elevated minimum temperature scenario over these regions would continue until Saturday, subsequent to which they would fall markedly as cold and sinking air at the rear of the disturbance envelops the region.

NOGAPS projections also show the disintegration of the anti-cyclone (high-pressure region) over central and east India around December 25 to be replaced by a ‘big brother’ system moving in from West Asia.

The mostly northwesterly flows (unlike the westerly to southwesterlies until now) being let loose by this system could set up cold wave conditions in northwest and central India.

Rain or snow are likely at a few places over Jammu and Kashmir till Thursday and at most places thereafter while it would be isolated over Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.

Mainly dry weather is forecast for the rest of the region during the two days and isolated rain/thundershowers thereafter. Isolated rain or thundershowers are also likely over Gujarat and Rajasthan.

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