The Hindu Business Line : All-India rainfall figures fall into deficit

Thiruvananthapuram, July 24 For the first time this season thus far, all-India rainfall has fallen into deficit as per updated India Meteorological Department (IMD) statistics until July 23.

The rainfall till last week had showed a surplus of four per cent, which had, however, masked the massive variation in spread over spatial and temporal scales with peninsular India plumbing new lows in recorded rainfall.

The latest seasonal rainfall records showed a deficit of two per cent with the number of Met sub-divisions recording excess or normal rains dwindling to 21 (27 until the previous week). A few ‘excess’ sub-divisions were rated down afresh to ‘normal.’

But those sub-divisions recording deficit rainfall shot up to 14 (eight) as entire States of Karnataka, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala and Gujarat went down under. Tamil Nadu and the Lakshadweep and Andaman islands were the sole exceptions to the trend south of the country.

BREAKTHROUGH RAINS

Meanwhile, the IMD on Thursday maintained the outlook for a ‘breakthrough’ low-pressure area in the Bay of Bengal even as overnight rains piloted into the stricken peninsular interior.

Parts of the arid central peninsula, including those in Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra, received welcome rains with promise of more to come with the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal hopefully getting their act together.

The rain-driving land-based monsoon trough is expected to get a move south from the Himalayan foothills and slot itself into its normal alignment from the north-northwest to south-southeast across the plains.

The eastern end of the trough is forecast to drop into the Bay of Bengal and scoop up the ‘low’ around Sunday. Predictions continue to suggest that west-central and adjoining northwest Bay would host the system.

International models still bet on the system undergoing one round of intensification before curling its way into Orissa coast. Rainfall is likely to increase significantly over central and adjoining peninsular India during the next five days, the IMD said.

At the same time, the ongoing rainfall activity over the North-East, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim and the Gangetic plains will start lifting as the monsoon trough takes leave.

3-MONTH FORECASTS

Meanwhile, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has come out with the latest seasonal forecast of mean precipitation anomaly for the August-September-October season.

It indicates positive rain anomalies for southeast and southwest Bay of Bengal, the west coast and west-central peninsula during the season. But slightly negative anomalies are indicated for the southeast coast and the extreme south peninsula.

Forecast for September-October-November showed normal precipitation for the country except parts of the northwest. Positive rain anomalies have been indicated for western and northwest Gujarat during the period.

DIFFERENT VIEW

The Asia-Pacific Climate Centre of the Asia-Pacific Economic Community says that the August-September-October rains over India would be normal except over a narrow west to east corridor across the central peninsula.

But August rains are likely to be above normal for north, east and south peninsular India. September would see a patch of deficient rains over the west coast growing into madhya Maharashtra and Marathawada. They would be normal for the rest of the peninsula while being excess in north India.

October is likely to see rains spread out spatially across the country, with excess precipitation indicated for peninsular coasts, interior peninsula, central and north India.

The August-October period is climatologically a typhoon-intensive period, particularly in the West Pacific region.

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