The Hindu Business Line : July rainfall this year may be better than 2002, 2004

Thiruvananthapuram, July 22 Crucial July rainfall till now may have proved deficient in the southern peninsula, but statistics suggest that the situation may not be as bad as during comparable periods either in 2002, which recorded a historical low, or 2004.

July 2002 saw the rains plumb to 49 per cent deficit, the lowest in over 100 years, while the next worst July in recent memory was 2004 when the deficit was around 23 per cent.

The June 1-July 28 rainfall scenario for 2004 is also instructive – a deficit of 14.94 per cent. This compares with a surplus of four per cent recorded until July 16 this year till when figures have been updated, though this is expected to come down further when updates are due next.

The 2004 season too had with a flourish, notching up a surplus of 21.16 per cent during the June 1-23. But this had faltered later. The fortunes plunged to a nadir with the last week of July ending up with 40 per cent deficit.

COMPARABLY BETTER

This year has been comparably much better, though the surplus has petered out from a high of 45 per cent during the initial phase to four per cent as on July 16. But a surplus run that has continued until mid-July is a big morale booster.

But this ‘low base’ of 2002 and 2004 will be more than enough to show this July in good stead, the growing deficit in the south notwithstanding. What adds to the comfort level is the normal rainfall until the first week, and forecasts of a revival of rains, however, muted, over the southwest coast and parts of central peninsula during the week ahead.

India Meteorological Department (IMD) is already on record having forecast July rainfall to be around 98 per cent of the long period average. According to sources, there is no cause for `drastically altering’ this outlook just yet.

Also, unlike in 2002 or 2004, rainfall this year has been excess or normal over the rest of the country, especially the north, northwest and the east. Another redeeming feature is the fact there are still two full months to for monsoon to end, forecasts for which range from normal to even above normal.

KHARIF CROPS

The poor rainfall in Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra translates into harder times for major kharif crops, especially sorghum, groundnut, cotton and maize. But agro-meteorologists are of the view that the last word on their fate, except that of sorghum, has not been said yet.

Sorghum has ruled itself out of the reckoning for sure, they say. The outlook for maize (corn) too may add up to not much to write home about, though there is some faint hope for the late sown crop.

The outlook is decidedly better with respect to groundnut and cotton, provided the late-month rains materialise as have been forecast. Still they would need to deal with a real threat from pest infestations.

A study of the June-September monsoon rainfall of the whole of India over a period more than 100 years has revealed that monsoon does unveil itself in distinct, near 30-year epochs.

EPOCHAL CYCLES

1901 to 1930 was an epoch of frequent droughts, about once in four years - taking a drought year as having more than 10 per cent deficit in all-India rainfall. During the next 30 years, there were only two drought years, 1941 and 1951, the drought frequency being once in 15 years.

However, the next 30 years saw 10 droughts, a drought once in three years on the average. In the three-decade period beginning 1991, very few droughts were expected to happen in line with the previous pattern followed by the monsoon, say at a frequency of one drought in about 15 years.

The last major drought experienced was in 1987. During the next 14 years ending 2001, India has had good monsoon rains every year. So, may be it is time for a cyclical drought to happen. Year 2002 and later 2004, came the closest to it.

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