The Hindu Business Line : See-saw on the nuclear deal

All attention is on developments on the Indo-US nuclear deal. Everybody is quick to point out that neither the Congress nor other political parties within the UPA wants the government to fall and an unwelcome election forced on them. But will the Left parties really bring down the UPA government by withdrawing support?

Rasheeda Bhagat

The constant tug-of-war between the United Progressive Alliance government and the Left parties over the Indo-US civilian nuclear deal is getting a little exhausting. Even more tiring is the see-saw over the nuclear issue. If the UPA wants to go ahead with the deal, let them do so. And if the Left wants to withdraw support, so be it. But, unfortunately, politics and politicians — be it the Congress and its allies on one side, or the Left and its comrades on the other , don’t exactly work like that. Or else, we would not have, yet again, screaming newspaper headlines and shrill TV anchors predicting the imminent fall of the UPA government on the nuclear power deal issue.

There is little doubt that the Prime Minister, Dr Manmohan Singh, has made up his mind to do all he can to take this deal forward. He was ready to do so even last August, and put his government on the line over this issue when he clearly spelt out in an interview to The Telegraph that: “I told them (Left allies) that it is not possible to renegotiate the deal. It is an honourable deal, the Cabinet has approved it, we cannot go back on it. I told them to do whatever they want to do, if they want to withdraw support, so be it.”

But he was made to eat humble pie by the Congress high command and the UPA allies; nobody wanted the Government to fall over this “non-issue”, as they termed it in private conversations.

If all the parties of the UPA, including the Congress, did not want elections in August 2007, when things were not half as bad as now, it stands to reason that nobody wants an election now.

‘Fulfil the peoples’ expectations’

The global economic crisis, crude prices upward of $135 a barrel, and inflation touching a 13-year high of 11.05 per cent, is not the best of times for an incumbent administration to stick out its neck and go to the polls. So, it was a little surprising when, last fortnight, Dr Singh started chanting the Indo-US nuclear deal mantra again.

Even some of his Cabinet colleagues did not take him seriously, till they heard a reiteration of how this deal was “in the interest of the nation”, this time from the Congress chief, Ms Sonia Gandhi, while on a visit to Assam.

With the endorsement of the energy deal coming from the top two of the UPA, and that too barely a couple of days apart, it was clear that something was cooking on the nuke deal front.

While the Left parties have once again read the riot act, the Prime Minister has kept his cool and not responded to any of the barbs; the latest being the CPI(M) General Secretary, Mr Prakash Karat’s statement asking Dr Singh to fulfil the expectations of the Indian people by tackling inflation and holding the price line and not “some commitment made to President Bush”. As the Left steps up its rhetoric to withdraw support if the Government goes ahead with its decision to push through the deal before giving the UPA-Left co-ordinating committee a chance to thrash out the issue, the UPA’s allies are in a tizzy.

Leaders such as the Rashtriya Janata Dal chief, Mr Lalu Prasad, and the Tamil Nadu Chief Minister, Mr M. Karunanidhi, have extended their support, both to the deal and the UPA, but not without stating that all that it takes should be done to bring the Left allies on board.

Another ally, Mr Sharad Pawar of the Nationalist Congress Party is even more categorical and has maintained that the UPA government should indeed show more reverence to and patience with allies like the Left.

Clearly, none of the UPA allies wants an election even one day before the scheduled date.

Sonia expresses helplessness

Expressing her helplessness, Ms Sonia Gandhi has reportedly told the Left leaders that since the Prime Minister had said that either he should be allowed to go through with the nuclear deal or permitted to step down from the Prime Minister’s post, she had very little choice.

This leaves very little room for doubt that if the UPA government decides to push through the deal, it will be because both Dr Singh and Ms Gandhi have made up their minds that this has to be done.

There is little chance that Dr Singh, the hallmark of whose prime ministership has been mild posturing at best, would suddenly turn ferocious in support of the deal. After all, barely a year ago, he had turned around and categorically said that if the deal had to be sacrificed for so many reasons, he could live with that, and more importantly, his was not a “one-agenda government”.

The latest development on this front is that Mr Karunanidhi has stepped on to centre-stage and volunteered to broker peace between the Left and the UPA. Both Mr Karat and the CPI national secretary, Mr D. Raja, called upon the DMK chief at his residence on Sunday to discuss the political stalemate.

They have asked Mr Karunanidhi to re-convey their message that the UPA government should not go to the Board of Governors of International Atomic Energy Agency with the safeguards agreement. As expected, both the sides have reiterated that any headlong confrontation on this issue would only help “communal forces” such as the BJP. All eyes are now peeled on further developments on this front. Mr Karunanidhi has promised to do his utmost to ensure that the UPA-Left “unity” continues.

While everybody is quick to point out how neither the Congress nor other political parties within the UPA wants the government to fall and an unwelcome election forced on them, one wonders why hardly any voices are asking if the Left parties will really take the ultimate step of bringing the UPA government down by withdrawing support.

The Government might not really fall if the Samajwadi Party, with its 39 MPs comes forward to support or join the UPA. Of course, Ms Mayawati has announced withdrawal of the Bahujan Samaj Party’s support to the UPA in anticipation of the SP coming on board. And, just as the DMK and AIADMK cannot be on the same side of any political divide, so it is with bitter political rivals such as the SP and the BSP.

Will the Left do it?

Arithmetic aside, the crucial question is if the Left parties are really ready to bite the bullet and withdraw support, which would thrust an early election even on them.

In these tough and uncertain times, what is the guarantee that, in an ensuing election, the Left parties will return with a tally of 60-plus MPs?

Their fortunes in Kerala are not exactly on the rise. And if Mr Pawar, or Mr Lalu Prasad or Mr Karunanidhi is not in a hurry to test the incumbency factor when the situation out there on the field is so grim — shooting inflation, rising prices, growing distress and a reversal in sentiment when it comes to India’s growth story — do Mr Karat and his comrades believe that the incumbency factor will not touch them? Unlikely.

The truth, then, is that nobody wants an early election where the outcome will be definitely very uncertain and beyond the predicting capacity of the wisest or most experienced political analysts.

Perhaps it is this ground reality that is emboldening Dr Singh to make a last, desperate push for the nuclear deal. While accusations fly back and forth, a surprise from this brand new political imbroglio is the firmness shown by Dr Singh.

Is there a political message in this too? Is Ms Gandhi trying to convey, more to her own colleagues within the Congress than to her allies or opponents that she has made up her mind to push for another term for Dr Singh, in case the UPA returns to power, the chances of which are rather slim at the moment? The country, too, should take some comfort from this message.

At least for the next five years, the Congress high command might not push the young and inexperienced Rahul Gandhi for the nation’s top job. Even though it was a Herculean task, he has not delivered any magic yet for the party in Uttar Pradesh or, more recently, Karnataka.

For the equity market, all this has dealt a double blow. Already struggling and in the collapse mode, following withdrawal of patronage by fair-weather friends such as the FIIs, it reeled last week under the 11 per cent inflation whiplash, coupled with political uncertainty. There is no dearth of irony in the stock market; the same market that found it so difficult to let a BJP administration go in April 2004, now wants to hang on to the coat-tails of a non-BJP government!

Response may be sent to rasheeda@thehindu.co.in

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