The Hindu Business Line : Looks like `it's Barack Obama, stupid!'

In whosesoever favour the year-long gruelling ordeal by primaries between Mr Barack Obama and Ms Hillary Clinton for the Democratic Party nomination for this year's US Presidential elections ends, it is going to be a historic first.

If it is Ms Clinton, it will be the first time a woman, and that too a world famous former First Lady and a sitting two-term Senator of the country's equally famous New York State, the Big Apple in every American's eye, will be the Presidential candidate.

If it is Mr Obama, it will again be the first time an African-American, and that too, a 47-year-old first-time Senator from Illinois, will be fighting for the ultimate electoral prize. Whether he gets it or not, it is an incredible achievement for him to have come thus far. Remember, at the time both he and Ms Clinton started testing out the waters in the primaries, he was an unknown entity and all odds were heavily against him.

And if, by chance, both are in the field, one as the Presidential and the other as Vice-Presidential, nominees, well, they would have presented the world the greatest wonder of all in psephological history so far. As of now, Mr Obama has got his party nomination all but sewed up and in the bag.

It speaks volumes for his political savvy, mettle and stamina that he has not only held his own against such a formidable opponent but got the better of her in delegate strength and contributions to campaign coffers. He has also got many political big guns - the legendary Mr Ted Kennedy and erstwhile contender for the Democratic nomination, Mr John Edwards, being among them - booming for him. He has indeed emerged as a phenomenon without precedent in American politics, adding to the drama and excitement of the electoral battle which has also cast a spell on the people of the US and the world.

What accounts for Mr Obama's electrifying lead? His winsome ways, no doubt, for starters. But they alone would have counted for little, without his having the stuff in him. He has shown himself to be a candidate endowed with vision which he has been to convey with matching eloquence.

HIGH-VOLTAGE SPOUSE

Mr Obama's theme has been change, not as an incremental progression, but radically breaking away from the past, from all that has made the system, in the eyes of the people, despicable and rotten.

He has somehow been able to carry conviction that he means what he says, and that he is the person for the job. Ms Clinton has understandably been harping on her experience of affairs of State by virtue of her having been the First Lady and close to actions and decisions that shaped events in the US and the world.

Experience certainly helps, but is not all. There are instances in democratic countries of persons - the names of John F. Kennedy and Rajiv Gandhi readily come to mind - with relatively little experience of running the government blossoming to be charismatic leaders.

Further, in Ms Clinton's case, there have been comments expressed about the possibility of her being hamstrung by the presence of her high-voltage spouse in the White House. This perhaps is the reason why she had kept him out of the campaign. While the Democratic Party may agonise over Ms Clinton and Mr Obama, the Republican Party is set to field Mr John McCain.

He enjoys good reputation, his record of public service is impressive and he has been playing his cards well, but his age (71) may work against him, unless he neutralises this by choosing a young Vice-Presidential mate.

All in all, "It's Barack Obama, stupid!" is what it looks like at this point.

B. S. RAGHAVAN