The Hindu Business Line : Mercury set to reverse declining trend in northwest

Thiruvananthapuram, April 6 Consensus forecasts by domestic and international weather models indicate that maximum temperatures in the northwest may start looking up once the ‘offending’ high-pressure zone gradually lifts to beyond the international border around April 12.

As a result, prevailing high atmospheric pressure values ranging from 1020 to 1010 millibars are expected to climb down to a more tolerable 1005 millibars.

The mutually inverse values balance out each other to set up the ‘heat low’ in the region. But arrival of western disturbances in between could still distort the pressure values.

At least two such arrivals are indicated, though weaker in amplitude compared to the significantly weather-creating one that lay over the northwest on Sunday.

IDEAL VALUES

The pressure value should come down to below the 1,000-millibar level relative to that obtaining to extreme south peninsular India to set up an ideal north-to-south pressure gradient around mid-May, along which the monsoon current would propagate later.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Sunday that maximum temperatures were 6-11{ring}C below normal over northwest India, Chhattisgarh, Orissa, and 4-6{ring}C below normal over Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand and Gangetic West Bengal.

Current meteorological analysis suggested gradual rise in maximum temperature during next four days, it said.

CYCLONIC WHIRL

The western disturbance lay over Jammu and Kashmir and neighbourhood while the induced cyclonic circulation had spun in to take a position over northwest Rajasthan.

The embedded weather-driving trough ran roughly along 73.0 Deg Longitude (southwest Rajasthan to north Gujarat), having dipped down to the north of 25.0 Deg North (Jalore, Rajasthan).

A cyclonic circulation hovered over east Uttar Pradesh and neighbourhood.

The above four systems are likely to move east-northeastwards to clear out from the mainland.

In its forecast for the next few days, the IMD said that isolated rain or thundershowers are likely over Jammu and Kashmir, Gujarat, Maharashtra, east Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha and Chhattisgarh. In the east, rain or thundershowers likely at a few places accompanied by isolated thunder squalls are likely during the next 24 hours and may decrease thereafter.

TROUGH REESTABLISHES

Meanwhile, in the south, a trough of low has re-established over the southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining South Andaman Sea.

A trough originating from an existing cyclonic circulation Chhattisgarh ran down to Kerala through Vidarbha, Telangana and interior Karnataka.

Rain or thundershowers are likely at a few places over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. Isolated rain or thundershowers are likely over Tamil Nadu during the next 24 hours and scattered thereafter.

According to the Regional Met Centre, Chennai, rainfall occurred at a few places over south interior Karnataka during the 24 hours ending Sunday morning. Isolated rainfall also occurred over Tamil Nadu, Kerala, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and north interior Karnataka.

Forecast for the next two days said that isolated rain or thundershowers are likely to occur over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala, south interior Karnataka, Telangana and coastal Andhra Pradesh. The unsettled weather could last till the weekend.

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