The Hindu Business Line : Inbound westerly system hits central Asia

Eastern Europe and Central Asia are reeling under the ‘whitening’ effect from a massive rain-and-snow spouting weather system whose next ports of call to the east include Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India, in that order.

The progressively weakening system would enter India as back-to-back western disturbances on Saturday and early next week, and are being keenly watched for its rain/snow generating capacity over the cold and dry plains as well as hills of the northwest.

Widespread seasonal rains are expected to lash both Pakistan and India from Monday, according to consensus forecasts by various international models. Medium-range predictions made by India’s national forecasts too have concurred.

On Friday, the local forecasts said that a westerly trough is likely to move across Jammu and Kashmir within the next 24 hours. This would be rear-ended by another deep westerly trough expected to affect northwest India from Monday to Wednesday.

Under the influence of these troughs, the hilly regions of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand will experience isolated to scattered snowfall/rain, and subsequently fairly widespread snowfall/rainfall. Adjoining plains of Punjab, Haryana, north Rajasthan and west Uttar Pradesh may also receive isolated to scattered rainfall Tuesday onwards.

The clouds expected to build up ahead would help raise mercury by 4-5 deg C and lift the prevailing cold wave that had set in after the eastward movement of the latest cited western disturbance from December 20 to 22.

Meanwhile, in the south, an itinerant easterly wave generated a wet session over coastal Tamil Nadu on Friday, which is expected to continue, though slightly reduced in intensity, over the next two days. The wave would be found in action over adjoining Kerala before dissipating over the Arabian Sea.

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