The Hindu Business Line : Wheat output likely to dip below 70 mt

With a major part of sowing complete and going by acreage trends reported till now, the country appears headed for a disastrous wheat harvest. There is every indication of the overall crop size plunging well below 70 million tonnes (mt).

Madhya Pradesh

The most ominous signs are in Madhya Pradesh (M.P.), where last year by this time, not only was 39.93 lakh hectares (lh) covered, but planting was fully completed. In contrast, only 24.25 lh have been sown so far this year, with little possibility of a further expansion taking place. Wheat acreage in the State is, thus, set for a minimum 15 lh decline, which, on a yield of 1.79 tonnes per hectare in 2006-07, translates into a production loss of 2.6-2.7 mt.

Uttar Pradesh

In Uttar Pradesh, farmers have similarly planted only 55.55 lh as on December 7, against 66.06 lh during the corresponding period of last year and 91.98 lh for the entire season. Worse, a significant portion of the fall has taken place in the irrigated, high-yielding western districts that also grow cane. With sugar mills commencing crushing operations only towards end-November (against the normal early-November), farmers have not been able to vacate their cane area to plant wheat in time.

Bihar

Even if some extra area comes under late sowing, particularly in the eastern parts, UP is still likely to end up with a 6-7 lh decline. This, on an average 2.72 tonnes a hectare yield, comes to 1.7-1.8 mt. Bihar, too, has reported lower coverage of 5.92 lh so far, against last year’s corresponding 8.34 lh and 20.54 lh for the season as a whole. Even a conservative area shortfall of two lh on an average yield of 1.74 tonnes would bring down output by 0.3-0.4 lt. UP and Bihar together are likely to record a production fall of 2-2.2 mt, on top of MP’s 2.6-2.7 mt.

Western states

But that’s not all. Cumulative reductions in plantings have also been reported in Rajasthan (13.40 lh versus 15.69 lh), Gujarat (5.62 versus 8.18) and Maharashtra (6.13 versus 12.22). Last year, wheat acreages in these three States had peaked at 25.65, 12.01 and 12.22 lh, respectively. This year, these seem set for declines of four lh each, which (on yields of 1.44 for Maharashtra, 2.5 for Gujarat and 2.7 for Rajasthan) adds up to another 2.7 mt.

Punjab, Haryana

All put then, one can expect a dip of 7.5 mt in total output from last year’s 74.89 mt. Even assuming an extra one lh being sown in Punjab and Haryana (where yields are higher at 4.2 tonnes) and congenial weather for the rest of the season (extended winter, rains in January, no hailstorms), they could, at the most, add five lt. So, be prepared for wheat output hovering close to even the 2002-03 drought year level of 65.76 mt.

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