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Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram, Oct. 19 The northeast monsoon is expected to set in early next week, pushed beyond the normal October 15-20 timeline, as it turns out, by the combined waltz of a rogue circulation in the northeast and a trough in the western disturbance.

These circulations of ‘nuisance value’ are expected to be kicked to the north by the resident anticyclone, forcing the remnant southwest monsoon to withdraw from east and central India and Maharashtra during the next two days.

This will clear the way for the easterly-to-northeasterly wind regime by Monday or Tuesday, India Meteorological Department (IMD) update said on Friday. It is likely that the Tamil Nadu coast would receive the first ‘low’/depression of the season in 10 days time.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) says that the causative circulation would break out around October 26 over west-central Bay of Bengal. It will move west-northwest, covering some distance to reach north coastal Tamil Nadu/south coastal Andhra Pradesh coasts by October 30.

This would give it enough time to intensify as a depression when crossing land and help the northeast monsoon to fire along full-throttle. Heavy precipitation has been indicated along the southeast coast and the southwest coast during the latter part of the week and through the next.

The proceedings will culminate in a big ‘blow-up’ over southern Tamil Nadu and southern Kerala, including the peninsular tip, according to the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP).

Earlier last week, conditions had evolved for the northeast monsoon to set in, primarily with the east-west shear zone of atmospheric turbulence establishing over the peninsula. But the rogue ‘low’ in the northeast and the upper-level trough put up rearguard action to prevent the seasonal anticyclone from favourably impacting the easterly winds.

Thus, contrary to expectations, the combined system managed to do a ‘Gonu’ to the northeast monsoon just as a non-seasonal Super Cyclone bearing the same name robbed the southwest monsoon much of its feared punch during its onset earlier in June this year.

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