The Hindu Business Line : ‘Smeared’ clouds signal monsoon revival

Thiruvananthapuram, Aug 2 Satellite pictures on Thursday revealed typically ‘smeared clouds’ returning to occupy the Indian skies to signal a renewed phase of active southwest monsoon.

In what is being described as a classic monsoon revival, a low-pressure area springing up over the northwest Bay of Bengal by Saturday will move slowly west-northwest and drive rain into central India and peninsular interior.

Significantly, models also predict the development of a middle-level cyclonic circulation over northeast Arabian Sea and adjoining Gujarat coast early next week.

This throws up the possibility of an eventful interaction with the incoming ‘low’ from the Bay and a bountiful, even destructive, spell of rainfall for central India.

HIGH WINDS LIKELY

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has indicated high winds and sustained flooding rains for these parts for most part of the next week.

These areas had gone dry since mid-July in tandem with a ‘break monsoon’ phase, though the rest of the country had been receiving varying amounts of rainfall.

The seasonally migrating monsoon trough emptied heavy torrents flooding the east and northeast and sending most rivers in spate.

DRAG EFFECT

The rain belt will now take leave of these areas and travel southward along with the monsoon trough under the drag effect of the brewing ‘low’ in the Bay.

The wet session will lift from the North-Eastern States from Thursday and from sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Bihar and east Uttar Pradesh, Friday onwards.

The trough will later align in a north-northwest to south-southeast direction to represent active monsoon conditions.

On Thursday, its axis passed through Ganganagar, Karnal, Shahjahanpur, Varanasi, Ranchi, Digha and onward into east-central Bay of Bengal.

The Bay end will move west to coalesce with the brewing ‘low.’

‘LOW’ TO INTENSIFY

An update by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Thursday said that the ‘low’ would intensify to become ‘well marked.’

International weather models did not rule out further intensification.

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