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Vinson Kurian

Rains along west coast likely next week

Thiruvananthapuram May 22 The monsoon onset over Kerala may just get stretched beyond the seven-day window (May 24, with a model error margin of plus or minus three days) declared by India Meteorological Department (IMD), as per available indications.

The earliest when any meaningful rains are expected to take place along the west coast is now put around May 28 (Monday next), according to weathermen. This may or may not be accompanied by a full-scale onset of monsoon.

This represents an about-turn in the outlook for monsoon, which, according to major models, had been priming itself for an onset up to seven days earlier than normal for Kerala. Components in the onset matrix were seen as falling into place one by one until only a few days back.

Anomalous positioning and subsequent westward straying of cloudiness associated with a developing system in the central Arabian Sea is one feature that is thought to have interfered with the orderly progress of the monsoon current to the east (towards Kerala coast).

Pacific typhoon

Adding to this was the genesis of a category-4 northwest Pacific typhoon, Yutu, which is thought to have deflected some of the southwesterly flows to itself. This has become evident in cloudiness getting stretched into the east Bay of Bengal, northeast India and farther east. Lately, a big-amplitude western disturbance with its strong northwesterly flows is currently dominating the skies over much of the landscape, with prospects of unleashing a train of thundershower events in the southern peninsula. But it could also slow down the progress of the monsoon current, unless it is strong enough to prevail over the gust of northwesterlies.

Numerical forecast

Mr Jim Andrews of AccuWeather.com cited latest numerical forecast at hand to refer to `what may prove to be the monsoon onset in southwest India' by next week. The big western disturbance is seen dipping southwestward over the Arabian Sea, as a ridge (high pressure) builds in the upper levels over India.

"To my mind, these are strongly positive indicators for monsoon onset in the week leading up to the 1st of June," he said.

The cross-equatorial flow of southwesterlies continues to be reasonably strong. But most of it is getting directed into the loosely organised cloudiness located near the African coast. Winds towards the east (towards the Kerala coast) are found to be lacking in strength.

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Monsoon onset window may get stretched

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