The Hindu Business Line : More minefields in SAARC?

Many imponderables — Pakistan bringing in the Kashmir issue, Afghanistan's entry and the US and China as observers — do not augur well for the efficient working of SAARC.

The principal theme addressed at the 14th summit of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) was "connectivity", the specific focus being on how to deepen the existing links and expand them to newer areas. Indeed, this message was underscored by the Prime Minister, Dr Manmohan Singh, when, in the course of his welcome speech to fellow SAARC leaders, he said that without "connectivity" the association would not be able to "touch and improve the lives of our people".

Among other things, Dr Singh said there was economic vibrancy and social change in every country of South Asia and that, "Never before has it been truly within our capacity to envisage a future where our people are free of the twin curses of poverty and disease." Such a future was possible today, and for the first time SAARC had the wherewithal to fulfil its Charter which, among other things, sought "to promote the welfare of the peoples of South Asia and to accelerate economic growth, social progress and cultural development in the region".

The principal instrument to be used to attain the objective was, according to Dr Singh, better "connectivity" — in the physical, economic and psychological sense which would enable the association use its "geographical and resource endowments" to the fullest advantage. As he put it, "South Asia has flourished most when connected to itself and the rest of the world".

Connectivity, the key

The summit declaration too echoed the same sentiments with "connectivity" being accorded the pride of place in its scheme of ideas and exhortations. In the third paragraph, the leaders focused on the concept of "Partnership for Prosperity" the objective being to "work towards shared economic cooperation, regional prosperity, a better life for the people of South Asia, and equitable distribution of benefits and opportunities of integration among the peoples and the nations". And how was this to be attained? As the declaration said, the leaders recognized the importance of connectivity — "within South Asia and then with the rest of the world" — and agreed to improve "intra-regional connectivity, particularly physical, economic and people-to-people connectivity".

Clearly, this emphasis on "connectivity" is welcome because without it no grouping of nations (of whatever nature) can hope to attain its objectives. Cooperation implies "contact" and the greater and deeper the contact the greater the understanding among the members of the group concerned and the potential to succeed in given tasks. There is, therefore, nothing new in such an emphasis, which raises the question of why the focus has been timed for now.

Herein lies the key to SAARC's successes and failures till now, the Association having been established as long ago as 1985. The question to ask is: Has the Association been able to attain its Charter's objectives in any meaningful way during the past 27 years? If it has not then what are the reasons behind the failure? More important, are the conditions any better today for success compared to the past?

`Break' with the past

As far as the present conditions governing the functioning of the Association is concerned, as Dr Singh has said, a new future beckons the grouping, which is enough to underscore the "break" with the past.

At the same time, it is also an indirect admission that, owing to the absence of all that exists today by way of a changed situation, the association has not been able to perform in the way expected of it by its Charter in the past.

In his welcome address, Dr Singh said significantly: "To realise our hopes, we need SAARC to be an efficient instrument implementing what we member states seek.

After several years of effort, the time has come to move SAARC from a declaratory phase to action and implementation. If we can complete work on the tools that we need, such as the SAARC Development Fund, and work realistically with each other, there is no reason why we cannot translate the vision of our Charter into a solid reality."

So, by the Prime Minister's own admission, the Association has been mainly a talking shop till now with very little action or implementation.

This of course has been known to the world at large for years and is, therefore, no revelation. The question is, will Dr Singh's exhortation make any difference now, taking advantage of the huge potential for development that is staring SAARC in the face.

For one thing, despite the gesture shown by New Delhi to the less developed members of the Association (zero-duty access for LDC goods by 2008), it is still uncertain whether trade integration will advance along the lines envisaged by SAARC's well-wishers, specially in view of Islamabad's stand on South Asian Free Trade Area.

In fact, at the 14th summit, Pakistan probably took a big step backward as far as the fulfilment of SAARC objectives is concerned when it made it abundantly clear that trade issues and politics could not be treated separately.

In other words, the point has been made (for whatever reason, strategic or tactical) that unless there is progress in the resolution of the Kashmir problem with India one should not expect any progress on the trade integration front.

Pakistan's intransigence

That is, SAFTA will continue to be hobbled by the Pakistani unwillingness to extend the same benefits to India which it is offering to other members of the group, thereby violating SAARC guidelines as well as stipulations under the World Trade Organisation of which Pakistan is a member. It may be argued that trade integration among the Association's members can continue apace even without the full participation of Pakistan, which would still contribute to the strengthening of SAARC and fulfilment of its Charter.

This is possible, but the fact remains that the unilateral trade policy adopted by Islamabad will lead to SAARC's functioning being flawed, which will most certainly lead to its overall efficiency being affected adversely.

This apart, the expansion of the SAARC membership (Afghanistan) may not augur well for the future efficient working of the grouping because of the existing political problems between Kabul and Islamabad.

True, this may not have an economic fallout comparable to the India-Pakistan rift, but the fact remains that the strain and stress generated by one more point of rivalry within its membership will tend to rock the SAARC boat even more than has been the case till now.

To cap it all, the new observers, which include Washington and Beijing, will not be averse to playing politics at the high table which, one suspects, will make the going even tougher for New Delhi in the long run.

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