The Hindu Business Line : Consensus growing on `good' monsoon outlook

Thiruvananthapuram April 4 After several years, the top four international weather models have come out with near-identical forecasts with respect to an evolving southwest monsoon in India.

The UK Met Office and the Japanese Meteorological Agency have now joined their US and European counterparts in projecting favourable oceanic conditions to "altogether rule out a monsoon deficit scenario."

The International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society at the University of Columbia and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) had made known their forecasts supporting an above normal monsoon this year.

MAY CONDITIONS

But atmospheric conditions in May are crucial to the proper evolving of the monsoon, according to Dr K.J. Ramesh of the Department of Science and Technology.

The pressure gradient and wind speeds, among others, would have to jell to establish ideal monsoon onset conditions around June 1.

This is something that bears close watching, he said.

Anomalous weather developing in May have upset the monsoon applecart on a few occasions in the past.

THUNDERSTORMS BREWING

Meanwhile, an increase in thundershower activity has been forecast for the southern peninsula over the next few days from relentless surface heating and resultant convection.

Prevailing easterly winds blowing inland will carry enough moisture to aid convection, Dr Ramesh said.

Seven-day forecasts put out by the ECMWF have indicated the possibility of some activity in the southwest Bay of Bengal by April 15.

This is part of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), the global band of `low,' which is moving north of the Equator to be around nearer home to aid monsoon development.

The dying El Nino and the nascent La Nina event have prompted leading US forecasters to predict a "busy" 2007 North Atlantic hurricane season.

Dr William Gray and Dr Philip Klotzbach of the Colorado State University have upgraded their seasonal forecasts by slotting the evolving 2007 season in the "very active category."

New storms

The forecaster duo predicted 17 named storms, of which nine would become hurricanes making landfalls on the US and Caribbean coasts.

In contrast, the hyper active 2005 season had seen a record-breaking 28 storms form, 15 of which went on to become hurricanes.

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