The Hindu Business Line : No vote for the silent majority

If the Budget was subdued and failed to enthuse Corporate India vis-à-vis further economic reforms, focussing instead on the silent majority — the small or landless farmers or the millions who cannot give their children a decent educatio n — so be it. Only, the government must ensure delivery if it is not to face further political setbacks as it did in Punjab and Uttarakhand, says RASHEEDA BHAGAT.

The grim face of Congress(I) President, Ms Sonia Gandhi, who was present in Parliament as the Finance Minister, Mr P. Chidambaram, read out the Budget speech on Wednesday, said it all. For the Congress party, it was not the best of times to showcase the economic achievements of the United Progressive Alliance Government. The news that the economy had been growing upward of 9 per cent the last couple of quarters made no difference to the voters of Punjab and Uttarakhand, who gave the Congress(I) the thumbs-down in the Assembly elections, though the party did improve its vote share in Punjab.

In the hill State the Congress proved, once again, that more often than not it is its own enemy, with intra-party dissensions and infighting ensuring that one more State slipped into the waiting arms of the BJP.

Though the Congress improved its performance and seat tally in Manipur, where Mr Okram Ibobi Singh will begin his second term as Chief Minister, the party, already on the back-foot over the Opposition's attack over the Quattrocchi affair, had little to celebrate on Budget day.

The recent Assembly election results have breathed new life into a faction-ridden BJP, which will now go to the polls in Uttar Pradesh with a renewed vigour and energy. As the number of States ruled by the Congress shrinks — remember Karnataka slipped away from its grasp even without an election — Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra are the only two important States in its kitty. But in the latter, the Congress(I) leads a coalition government and the recent municipal elections proved that the party has no chance of making it alone in the State without an alliance with Sharad Pawar's Nationalist Congress Party.

The halo fades

Political pundits will use up a lot of ink analysing how the urban voter in Punjab let the Congress(I) down, but the fact remains that the winner takes all. Shrugging away the results by attributing the verdict to the anti-incumbency factor is not realistic either, and would mean, by inference, that the Congress(I) and its allies should be ready to meekly hand over power to either a BJP-led coalition or the Third Front, if it materialises, in the next general elections.

But one thing is certain. After the UPA Government's conduct on the `Q' affair, its inability to rein in inflation and hold the price line, and the Assembly results, the halo that had risen around Ms Sonia Gandhi in the aftermath of the 2004 Lok Sabha polls — when she had firmly refused the prime minister's post — has certainly dimmed. Her illogical and unconstitutional resolve to dismiss the Mulayam Singh government at any cost, only diminished her stature as a leader who had, as recently as in 2004, toppled the comfortably ensconced National Democratic Alliance government.

Obviously, she will have to do much more than shoot off letters to the PMO asking it to either hold back the entry of mega foreign retail chains into India or bring down the prices of essential commodities. In the last few years, in the background of a resurgent India Inc in an aggressive growth mode, compelling the world to take serious note of the India story, the performance of the Manmohan Singh Government had appeared impressive. But as inflation shot up, driving up prices of most essentials, farmer suicides continued in the backdrop of a worsening agrarian crisis, and the middle-class groaned under the burden of modest incomes failing to keep pace with the rising expenditure, suddenly this government does not appear to have delivered on its promises after all.

In this backdrop, the simple, yet stern, message that Corporate India has sent the politicians is that, whatever be the colour, contour or political ideology of the ruling regime, it will continue to do well, unlocking the huge potential of the nation's skilled and trained human resource. Economic reforms have to a great extent cut the umbilical cord that bound the ruling polity/bureaucracy with Indian companies, making the latter dependent on the former.

Let us not forget that as the educated upper middle-classes carve out better lives for themselves by earning a share of India's growth and development, they are still a minority in a country of over 1.1 billion. As this privileged minority displays to the world what it can do in terms of improved lifestyles and increased consumer spending, there is a desperate majority standing by and watching helplessly how the economy growing at 9 per cent plus has little to offer it.

It was this majority that, cutting across caste, region and religion, sent home the NDA government that was chanting the India Shining mantra almost three years ago. It is possible that this silent but discerning majority, continuing to feel left out of the resurgent India story, will not hesitate to show the door to the UPA Government too if living conditions do not improve soon enough. It is unfortunate but true, economic growth has only widened the gulf between the rich and the poor, urban and the rural, skilled and unskilled.

If the Budget was subdued and failed to enthuse Corporate India vis-à-vis further economic reforms and attempted to focus a lot of time and effort on that silent majority — be it the small farmers or landless agricultural workers or the millions who are still not in a position to give their children a decent education — this correspondent has no complaint with it. But there is a rider.

Ensure delivery

The income-tax payers who groaned when they heard that the education cess was being hiked by one per cent would surely not mind pitching in to ensure basic education to millions of children.

But how many voices you have heard in the past 24 hours expressing scepticism that very little of the increased outlays in the Budget — be it for education, health, midday meals, irrigation or agricultural credit or benefits — will actually reach the intended beneficiaries.

When a respected agricultural scientist like Dr M. S. Swaminathan can say about the Budget proposals on agriculture that "agriculture not having to wait is an idea whose time is yet to come," how much hope the latest proposals will hold out to India's farmers is anybody's guess. Mr Chidambaram himself touched upon the importance of "delivery" vis-à-vis mere increased allocations.

Let his government waste no more time and use the rest of its term in putting in place foolproof mechanisms, be they citizens' committees or government-NGO joint efforts, to ensure that the cancer of corruption does not continue to eat into the thousands of crores of rupees set aside for the social sector.

Both the problems and the numbers are huge. But when a sincere attempt is made, the community responds and does its bit. Only, it has to be sure that the government means business. Only the political system or party that can send the message of sincerity and commitment, along with efficiency, can duck the anti-incumbency scourge. Whether the UPA leadership can do this remains a moot question.

Response may be sent to rasheeda@thehindu.co.in