The Hindu Business Line : Nuclear Proliferation in a Multipolar World — Iran, North Korea challenge American power

The American misadventure in Iraq, which has exposed the limitations of its military power, has had far-reaching global consequences. Sensing global aversion to American unilateralism and its tendency to arbitrarily describe regimes it dislikes as "Rogue States," Russia and China are now challenging the US on its policies in Iran, North Korea and Myanmar.

Recently, Russia and China vetoed American attempts to impose sanctions on Myanmar, with Security Council members noting that no neighbour of Myanmar shared the American perception that the policies of the Myanmar regime constituted a threat to peace and security. The Bush Administration's approach in dealing with the nuclear programmes of Iran and North Korea is, however, facing opposition not only from China and Russia. Even America's European NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation) allies are uneasy with the confrontational approach that some in Washington are advocating.

Iran impasse

During his recent visit to Iran, the External Affairs Minister, Mr Pranab Mukherjee, made it clear that Iran would have to cooperate actively with the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) verification efforts. He asserted that the IAEA should "play a central role in resolving outstanding issues". While Iran refuses to accept any preconditions before the commencement of substantive dialogue, the US is determined to push for further international sanctions, if Iran does not immediately comply with the provisions of UN Security Council Resolutions 1696 and 1737 and suspend its nuclear enrichment programme. This impasse can be overcome only if, as Mr Mukherjee noted, all sides demonstrate "flexibility and restraint".

There are three major factors that prompt countries to develop nuclear weapons. These are the fear of threats to their security, the quest for national prestige and, finally, the desire to break out of isolation and be taken note of by the international community. In the case of Iran, the driving force since the days of the Shah has been national prestige, as it cannot be seriously argued that any nuclear-armed country would attempt to invade Iran.

The Iranian nuclear programme rattles its Sunni Arab neighbours led by Saudi Arabia, which are now joining Egypt and Jordan to claim that they, like Iran, need nuclear energy. Israel's concerns of an Iranian nuclear threat are exaggerated. Iran's propaganda that it faces an Israeli nuclear "threat", in turn, lacks credibility. The Iranians know that any nuclear misadventure against Israel will involve a retaliation that can destroy their country.

Unfortunately, the posturing and inflammatory rhetoric of the Iranian President, Mr Mahmoud Ahmedinejad, about Israel have only raised regional tensions. People in Iran, however, feel that the US is determined to humiliate them and treat them as a "second class nation" by denying them the right to enrich uranium like many other countries. They argue that the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty does not deprive any country of its rights to uranium enrichment, merely because it is said to have violated the safeguard obligations.

Russian interest

Russia has strategic interests in Iran, as a supplier of both sophisticated military hardware and nuclear power plants, and as a major global player in energy cooperation. China is set to emerge a major importer of Iranian natural gas. Having seen the impact of American military adventurism in Iraq, the Europeans do not wish to see the oil-rich Persian Gulf destabilised by any American or Israeli military action against Iran.

In these circumstances, the Security Council will move cautiously on any ratcheting up of UN sanctions on Iran. Further, if Iran does agree to end its enrichment programme, would it not be useful to consider an arrangement under which its uranium enrichment programme is undertaken as a joint collaboration and joint management project with the IAEA or an IAEA member state, with the clear understanding that enrichment will not go to levels which could result in the production of weapons grade uranium?

Iran's Arab neighbours, which are members of the Gulf Cooperation Council, proposed at their Doha Summit that the Gulf should be kept as a zone free of weapons of mass destruction. Efforts should be made to persuade Iran to respond positively to this proposal of its Arab neighbours and agree to the establishment of an internationally guaranteed, denuclearised Gulf Region.

North Korean defiance

The US has found that threats will not deter the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea) from pursuing its nuclear ambitions. The assertion by the US president, Mr George Bush, that North Korea was a part of an "Axis of Evil" led the North Koreans, who appear to revel in international isolation to proclaim in February 2005 that they "had manufactured nuclear weapons for self-defence to cope with the Bush Administration's policy of isolating and crushing the DPRK." This defiance was also manifest when North Korea tested a nuclear weapon on October 9, 2006.

Given the efforts that South Korea has made to build confidence and enhance cooperation with North Korea and the strength of latter's armed forces, a military response to DPRK's nuclear weapons programme can be ruled out. The Russians believe that punitive sanctions against North Korea would only lead to further acts of defiance by Pyongyang. China recognises that such a development will cause Japan to review its nuclear options. A nuclear-armed Japan would be more aggressive in responding to attempts to isolate and contain it, by constant Chinese reminders of Japan's military excesses during the Second World War.

In these circumstances China is sparing no effort to use the "Six Party Talks" comprising North and South Korea, Japan, the US, Russia and China to evolve the framework for eventual denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula. The February 13 Beijing Statement initially involves a freeze on plutonium production and a resumption of IAEA inspections, linked to US guarantees of energy supplies to North Korea.

The sequencing and implementation of this process, which is ultimately to lead to the denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula, will inevitably be prolonged and contentious. The North Koreans are unlikely to give up their nuclear weapons soon and in any case not before they have obtained diplomatic recognition, security guarantees and economic and energy assistance from the US and others. Both the Iranian and North Korean nuclear programmes will remain contentious and difficult issues in coming years.

The Pakistan factor

The United States appears to be ready to ignore Pakistani involvement in the nuclear programmes of both Iran and North Korea. But can this selective policy address such key issues as the type of weapons designs that the so called "A. Q. Khan Network" may have provided to these countries or the important issue of whether A. Q. Khan was a "Lone Ranger," or did he operate with the approval of Pakistan's military establishment? Finally, given China's attempts to contain Japan in north-east and south-east Asia and India in South Asia, would it not be desirable to forge a wider dialogue and partnership with Japan and other democracies in the Asia-Pacific Region?

The Japanese Prime Minister, Mr Shinzo Abe, has proposed a concert of democracies that includes the US, Japan and India, to work together on issues of common interest. India needs to consider innovative measures in the emerging multipolar world order to complement the institution of the Russia-India-China dialogue, which is steadily gaining momentum. It is in these circumstances that responding positively to Prime Minister Abe's proposal will give India, which is now internationally regarded as an emerging economic powerhouse, wider options to increasingly participate in the emerging security and economic architecture of Asia and the Asia-Pacific Region.

(The author is a former High Commissioner of Pakistan.)

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