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Vinson Kurian

`Substantially high' temperatures seen during onset of monsoon

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Thiruvananthapuram Feb. 16 El Nino conditions are diminishing rapidly, as per the latest update by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society at Columbia University.

This marks the "beginning of the end" of an abnormal warming of the Equatorial and East Pacific, which has had cascading impact on weather conditions across the globe evidenced best in the warm winter in the US and Western Europe.

The probability of El Nino conditions staying through the next couple of months has dropped to 10 per cent.

In fact, the probability of a La Nina event has increased to beyond the "threshold limit" to 30 per cent over the next few months. La Nina is the exact reverse of El Nino where the Equatorial and East Pacific cools and wetter than normal conditions shift to Northwest Pacific. The IRI added a caveat saying considerable uncertainty remains over whether this would grow to a full-blown La Nina event.

`NEUTRAL CONDITIONS'

Also, it said that most other models indicated a slower decline of the El Nino. Out of a large set of dynamical and statistical forecast models, the majority predict "neutral" conditions by March/April 2007. There is also 60 per cent chance of the El Nino tail wagging through March to August this year.

Separately, the IRI has also come out with a seasonal global forecast, which seemingly suggests a less-than-spectacular onset phase for the southwest monsoon in India. It has maintained its outlook for slightly enhanced (38 per cent) probability of above normal temperature for peninsular India for all tri-monthly forecast periods from March to August.

The third triad of May-June-July, which coincides with the monsoon onset and growth phases, will bring `substantially high' (48 per cent above normal) temperatures.

There is slightly enhanced (38 per cent) probability as well for less than normal rainfall for the region during the pre-monsoon season (March-April-May).

PRECIPITATION PATTERN

But overall, indicated precipitation pattern for the rest of the country does not show much deviation to either side during March-August this year.

The IRI said sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern Pacific experienced significant cooling over the past month.

The declining warm anomalies are due in part to the resurgence of the easterly trade winds moving colder waters from east to west.

Also, below-average temperatures in the subsurface equatorial Pacific have moved from west to east, eroding the warm conditions and leading to cold SSTs as the easterly winds draw the cold subsurface waters to the surface.

But the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), marked out for its lighter wind regime, is closest to the Equator at this time of the year.

Still, the trend is currently toward cooling and there is a finite possibility that the system may reach La Nina conditions at least temporarily.

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El Nino diminishing; prospects up for La Nina

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