The Hindu Business Line : Easterlies head towards TN coast

Easterly waves with associated clusters of massive clouds have further accentuated over the southwest Bay of Bengal and are heading to the west with southern coastal Tamil Nadu in the line of sight.

Embedded cyclonic circulations pack enough moisture to dump heavy rain over the coast and sustain it over the next 48 hours, according to Mr J. V. Singh of the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF).

The rain bands could foray into adjoining Kerala and further west into Lakshadweep. Scattered to isolated heavy rainfall has been forecast for these regions.

Though located into the interior, catchment areas of the contentious Mullaperiyar reservoir/dam marking the Kerala-Tamil Nadu border could witness torrential rainfall over the next two days. The dam is 111-years-old, and both States have aired contrasting views about its safety aspects.

Heavy rains over the past few days have caused the reservoir level to cross the maximum possible 136 ft water, and the excess water to rush down the spillway. The diverted strong currents washed away large swathes of the Kollam-Theni state highway on Tuesday.

Most of the incoming moisture from the easterlies will have been expended along coastal Tamil Nadu and immediate environs, where the rains can be heavy to very heavy.

But the `orographic lifting' (forced upward movement upon encountering a barrier) provided by the higher reaches of the rugged border terrain could lead residual batches of clouds to rise, and condense to dump locally heavy rain in the Mullaperiyar catchment area.

Rains can occur even without this `lifting' effect, since the easterly waves pack `some real punch.'

It is likely that they would have been fed by moisture left behind by two South China Sea cyclones, `Cimaron' and `Chebi.' Cooler than normal Bay of Bengal waters alone prevented the waves from setting up `low's/depressions.

WESTERLIES IN NORTH

Meanwhile, a relentless procession of westerly waves has not allowed the cold northwesterlies to settle over the plains of northwest India. The winds are predominantly blowing from the south and southwest, and are warm.

This is why the mercury has not dipped to the level expected, Mr Singh said.

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