The Hindu Business Line : Southwest monsoon sets in ahead of schedule

Monsoon rains have arrived over Kerala, with India Meteorological Department (IMD) agreeing on Friday that the pattern of rain and slushy weather over the State during the last two days more than satisfied conditions for onset of the seasonal weather system.

In its long-term forecast for onset, the IMD had given May 30 as the likely date for onset with a margin of error of three days on either side. But the monsoon winds seem to have beaten IMD to it, with prevailing rains buffeting the State picking up in strength from Wednesday (May 24).

Several weather watchers had noted that these had for all practical purposes marked the beginning of the season. On Friday, the IMD bulletin said that it was declaring the onset in view of mainly three prevailing weather features - persistent strong and deep southwesterly flow over the South Arabian Sea; development of an offshore trough off the Kerala-Karnataka coast; development of an east-west shear zone from Bay of Bengal to Southwest Arabian Sea in the middle troposphere; and continued rainfall activity over Kerala for the last two days.

IMD warning

Conditions are favourable for advance of monsoon over coastal Karnataka and the North-Eastern States during the next 48 hours, the bulletin added. The northern limit of monsoon passed through Kochi and Chennai on Friday.

The IMD also warned of heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places over Kerala, Lakshadweep, and coastal Karnataka, and isolated rains over South Konkan, Goa, Nagaland, Mizoram, Manipur, and Tripura, during the next 48 hours.

The National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) said in its update on Friday that the monsoon has also covered parts of South Tamil Nadu and some more parts of West, East and Central Bay of Bengal.

Northward progression

Model predictions suggest that the system is likely to remain active and progress further northward to cover Costal Karnataka, some more parts of Tamil Nadu, and parts of North-Eastern States.

The northward progression is likely to continue over peninsular India during the next four days. The onset pulse will start weakening thereafter in anticipation of the arrival of the successor pulse along the southwest coast.

Cross-equatorial flows continue to be good; the Westerly Jet has established and is backed up by the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) moving into place, an NCMRWF spokesman told Business Line. Wind speeds have also picked up to optimum levels.

Meanwhile, the low-pressure areas located over the seas on either side of the peninsula on Thursday have started weakening.

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