The Hindu Business Line : Arabian Sea arm of monsoon in crucial phase

Weather update
Models indicate gradual increase in sustained rainfall activity over Kerala and adjoining areas Thursday onwards.
Forecast said many parts of coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telengana, Tamil Nadu, interior Karnataka and Lakshadweep, may receive scattered rainfall activity.

Thiruvananthapuram , May 22

The Arabian Sea arm of monsoon continues to throw up positive signals of an approaching onset at the beginning of a crucial week leaving nothing for weather watchers to complain.

Evolving to near copybook style, the monsoon jigsaw puzzle has got only one major piece to fall into place, according to Dr L.S. Rathore of the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF).

And this pertains to the ideal pressure gradient that settles into being consequent to the establishment of the `heat low' over West Rajasthan. Heating of the country's western parts and adjoining Pakistan has not taken place to the desired level, delaying the evolvement of the monsoon driving heat low.

Otherwise, all signals, including the moisture flux and the kinetic energy, are good for a monsoon that is just about hitting the home stretch. The westerly flows in the lower levels are now being matched by the presence of the easterlies in the upper level, Dr Rathore said.

The cloudiness and the precipitation regime associated with the system has started shifting from South Central Arabian Sea to the east, he added.

An NCMRWF update on Monday said the Bay of Bengal arm stagnated for a third consecutive day on Monday. Predictions suggest that the strength of the current over the South Bay of Bengal and the Andamans region may sustain for another 48 hours but weaken thereafter to some extent. Associated cloudiness and large-scale rainfall activity will dwindle.

But the Arabian Sea arm, which is the backbone of the monsoon system, is seen strengthening from bolstered cross equatorial flows along the East African coast (Somalia). Meanwhile, an NCMRWF forecast said many parts of peninsular India, viz. coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telengana, Tamil Nadu, interior Karnataka and Lakshadweep, may receive scattered rainfall activity over the next two to three days. Parts of Central India may also receive isolated rains and thundershowers during this period.

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