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Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram , May 9

The brief respite from a searing heat wave in North and Northwest India is set to end with a prevailing western disturbance dying out as early as in the next 24 hours. This will only set the stage for the next round of heating to begin in the region.

The helpful westerly system had triggered thunderstorms and dust storms overnight on Tuesday, bringing down temperatures. But this benign weather will not be sustained as the causative disturbance fades away into the East, said an update by the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF).

Day temperatures fell by two to four deg C overnight in North Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab, Delhi and West Uttar Pradesh. But severe heat wave conditions (topping 45 deg C) prevailed in parts of West Rajasthan, Haryana, West Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha.

Another western disturbance is expected to cross into the west by Wednesday/Thursday, NCMRWF said.

An upside from the blistering conditions is that the heat wave has crossed the international border, bringing Pakistan under its ever-growing footprint. According to Dr Akhilesh Gupta of NCMRWF, this provides the earliest indications of the monsoon-driving `heat low' establishing.

The heat low will gradually grow to cover Balochistan and extend onward to Iran and further into Northern Africa. When full blown, the heat low will straddle the South Asian landmass with its core centred over Jacobabad in Pakistan.

In India, the heat low will be manifest in West Rajasthan, with a contiguous heat trough extending southwards. Over time, the heating will expand into the East, with a second heat low taking shape over Madhya Pradesh.

The North-South trough will then convert itself into the seasonal trough to lie horizontally across, starting from the heat low over Madhya Pradesh to Head Bay of Bengal. This would have ensured that the entire southern peninsula and parts of Central India are cleared of heat wave conditions of any kind.

The initiation of the east-west seasonal trough will clear the way for a change in prevailing wind direction as well. The hot north-westerlies will yield their place to cooler south-westerlies. Expected to take place by the end of May, this will set the stage for the onset of monsoon.

Just as the western neighbour Pakistan helps the monsoon cause by hosting the core of the heat low, China in the East also plays its own role in helping the seasonal weather system thrive over India, Dr Gupta said. This it does by hoisting a matching high-pressure area, called the `Tibetan high', onto itself.

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