The Hindu Business Line : Cyclone `Baaz' may break out of jam to make landfall

TROPICAL cyclone Baaz refused to do the weatherman's bidding on Thursday as a combination of factors forced it to extend the vigil over the southwest Bay of Bengal waters for the better part of the last 24 hours.

Forecasts by various models now suggest that the storm is likely to cross land over south coastal Andhra Pradesh earliest by Friday night or early Saturday morning. This will expectedly come about with the system managing to break out of the jam and resuming the journey coastward in the next 24 hours, the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) said.

Meteorological analysis reveals that the less than warm coastal waters, the influence of a westerly trough (part of the system that is causing rain/snow in the higher reaches of Jammu and Kashmir currently) and the lack of a predominant steering wind mechanism just above had conspired to slow down the lateral movement of `Baaz'.

From 17 km/h initially, the system had decelerated to 3.7 km/h, leaving it astray over the Bay waters for about 36 hours but within striking distance (300 to 500 km) of the coast.

The pace is now tipped to improve to 12 km/h with the steering mechanism building and continental winds to the east of the system picking in strength.

The system still carried a core of winds with maximum sustained speeds reaching 45 knots (84 km/h) gusting to 55 knots (101 km/h). According to Dr K.J. Ramesh of the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), the barometric pressure at the centre was so low that placed it only a gust away from being called a Category 1 storm.

A special cyclone bulletin issued by the Chennai centre of India Meteorological Division (IMD) said gale wind with speeds reaching 80 to 90 km/h is likely to commence along the Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh coasts by Friday afternoon. Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls are likely over north Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh coasts during the next two days.

According to the NCMRWF, the outer rain bands associated with the organised cloud convection had extended to the north Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh coasts on Thursday itself. The system is likely to move in a west-northwesterly direction towards south coastal Andhra Pradesh.

The London-based Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) Group estimated the landfall to happen around 11.30 p.m. on Friday. It will have been reduced to tropical depression in 24 hours' time after moving west-northwest. The JTWC saw winds speeds winding down to 35 knots (65 km/h) with gusts of 45 knots (85 km/h) the same day.

Meanwhile, the existing `low' over the central parts of south Arabian Sea has moved northeast in the last 24 hours under the influence of the mid-latitude westerly trough.

The convective cloud bands have extended over the Konkan coast, Madhya Maharashtra, Vidarbha, south Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh. Isolated to scattered rainfall activity is expected over the Konkan coast, Madhya Maharashtra, Vidarbha, south Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh during the next two days.

A tropical disturbance summary issued by the University of Wisconsin-Madison in the US upgraded as `fair' the potential for development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours in the Arabian Sea.

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