Financial Daily from THE HINDU group of publications
Wednesday, Nov 23, 2005
Financial Daily from THE HINDU group of publications Wednesday, Nov 23, 2005 |
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Climate & Weather Industry & Economy - Climate & Weather Cool seawaters spare Tamil Nadu the blushes Vinson Kurian
Thiruvananthapuram , Nov. 22 THE cooling anomaly in the southwest Bay of Bengal and the contiguous Gulf of Mannar on Tuesday ensured that the depression did not strengthen as it prepared to cross the Tamil Nadu coast in the evening, possibly averting a major weather event along extreme southeast peninsular coast. Colour-coded graphics posted by the Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA) programme of the US military showed that the prevailing sea surface temperatures (SSTs) - a major factor influencing the behaviour of a sea-based system - over these water bodies were cooler than normal. This is as it should be, said Dr K.J. Ramesh of the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), what with the system having pulverised the sea surface with heavy torrents as it ran up the home stretch. On Tuesday, the warm anomalies in the peninsula were confined to extreme southeast Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea in the west. Not surprisingly, the NCMRWF has already issued an alert of a fresh cyclonic circulation brewing in the southeast Bay. The depression over land now set on a course heading towards the Malabar coast, there will be enough time for the southwest Bay and coastal peninsular waters to warm up sufficiently to host the new circulation as it churns coast-ward to launch what could possibly be the next round of monsoon rains sometime next week. On the other hand, the warm waters of the Arabian Sea will force the depression (weakened significantly by the time it reaches the Malabar coast) to decouple from its land base and slide into the ocean waters. It is forecast to anchor itself over the southwest Arabian Sea before strengthening further by the weekend. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECWMF) is also in agreement with such a scenario and sees the system maturing to peak strength by Monday next and not weakening at least for another day. Projections by the National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) of the US speak of precipitation levels reaching up to 500 per cent above normal for the week beginning Tuesday next over parts of south interior Tamil Nadu, north Kerala, coastal and south interior Karnataka. In its forecast for the next 24 hours, the NCMRWF said that the prevailing rainfall activity over the coastal belt of Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry would continue. Widespread rain with heavy to very heavy falls has been forecast for the south interior parts of Tamil Nadu beginning from the coast; scattered to fairly widespread over south coastal districts of Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Kerala and south interior Karnataka.
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