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Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram , Nov. 14

THE quiescent state of the northeast monsoon is not likely to last longer than Thursday with the east-west shear zone showing signs of reorganising and heaving itself north to an alignment along the 10N latitude passing through Madurai and Cochin.

This will happen in tandem with the inter-tropical zone of convergence (ITCZ) packing some of the most intense rain bands in the tropics but lying dormant near the equator getting accentuated once again, says Dr Akhilesh Gupta of the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF).

Model predictions suggest that Tamil Nadu and the adjoining States will be brought back within the grip of strong easterly flows and consequential torrents as early as from Saturday, Dr Gupta told Business Line. The sequence could well end up in the formation of a low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal, though the exact location is a bit tricky to predict.

The most preferred location for `lows' to form during this part of the year is over the southwest Bay. This is true for all `in situ' (locally generated) weather systems, says Dr Gupta. But those migrating from outside the territorial waters (South China Sea, for instance) have a tendency to converge over the southeast bay.

One particular weather model sees the `low' crossing the Tamil Nadu coast, which is rare for the month of November. The preferred area of crossing for bay systems during the month is the Andhra coast. It all boils down to the exact location where the system originates, Dr Gupta said. Normally, systems taking shape to the east of 85E have a tendency to cross the Tamil Nadu coast. It's too early to predict in any case, he adds.

The upper air cyclonic circulations over southwest Bay of Bengal and southeast Arabian Sea that have sustained a wet session in Kerala and the south Tamil Nadu coast over the past two-three days persisted on Monday as well. Having lost some steam already, the systems are now expected to cause only scattered rains over south costal Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Lakshadweep during the next two days.

This stage will continue till Friday when the shear zone starts shifting to the north and prepares the field for easterlies and moisture for the next round of northeast monsoon precipitation.

In region-wise forecasts, the NCMRWF said a western disturbance is expected to approach northwest India by Sunday, which may cause scattered rains/snow over the hills of the region and isolated rains in parts of the plains.

Night temperatures in certain pockets of north peninsular and central India are currently three to four degrees Celsius below normal due to incursion of frigid winds originating from the from the northwest. Model prediction suggests a slight rise in minimum temperatures in these areas during the next three-four days.

In the south, scattered rains are likely over Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry, Kerala, the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and Lakshadweep over the next three-four days. Rainfall activity over Tamil Nadu and adjoining areas is expected to revive again by Saturday.

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